Market statistics
- Total volume
- $178K
- 24h volume
- $155K
- Liquidity
- $538K
- Open interest
- $142K
Available prediction outcomes (3)
Sorted by descending live probability. Click any outcome to trade it on PolyGram.
Market context
This event is for the upcoming FIFA International Friendlies game, scheduled for Thursday, June 4, 2026 between France and Côte d'Ivoire.
Wikipedia Context
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France Castel
France Castel, née Bégin is a Canadian singer, actress and broadcaster.
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France InterFrance Inter is a French public radio channel and part of Radio France.
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France Cartes
France Cartes Cartamundi is a manufacturer of playing cards and games that is based in France at Saint-Max. The company introduced the Ducale brand of playing cards in 1946 and became the largest playing card manufacturer in France in 1962 after acquiring their competitor, Grimaud. Other brands marketed by France Cartes include Shuffle, Carta Magic, Grimaud
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France Chrétien Desmarais
France Chrétien Desmarais is a Canadian lawyer and businesswoman. She is the daughter of Jean Chrétien, 20th prime minister of Canada.
Methodology
This page tracks France vs. Côte d'Ivoire across four political prediction venues. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book (the deepest political prediction-market book). Kalshi is the CFTC-regulated US alternative, Betfair the established UK sports-exchange with politics markets, Manifold the open play-money variant. For users geo-blocked from Polymarket directly, brokers like PolyGram provide a 0%-fee route into the same order book.
Resolution & payout
Resolution source: This market settles from the official publication at https://www.fifa.com. A proposer submits the result to the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon, the two-hour challenge window opens, and the smart contract pays out in USDC.
For political markets the resolution source is decisive. Polymarket defines a concrete source per contract (e.g. AP, Reuters, official electoral commission) and uses the UMA Optimistic Oracle as the on-chain dispute mechanism. With a clearly defined outcome the USDC payout lands within minutes of the final confirmation.
FAQ
- How accurate are political prediction markets?
- Historically more accurate than polls. Polymarket's Brier score on US 2024 elections was ~0.11 — better than 538 (~0.14) and every mainstream poll. Markets aggregate information with real skin in the game.
- What resolution source is used for elections?
- Polymarket defines the source per contract — usually Associated Press (AP Race Call), Reuters or the official electoral commission. The source is stated in contract details before the market opens.
- Can prediction markets influence election outcomes?
- Markets reflect expectations rather than create them. Studies show public-facing markets can anchor expectations, but don't influence the underlying outcome. Political markets are information, not advocacy.
- How fast do political markets react to news?
- High-liquidity markets move within seconds to minutes. A Trump tweet on the economy can shift the "Trump 2024" market 2-5 points before mainstream media has written anything.
- Which political events have the biggest volume?
- US Presidential election, party nominations (DNC/RNC), Senate majorities, individual state outcomes (Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin), and major European elections. Peak markets reach $50-500M per event.
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