Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Trump Prediction) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
94% | 6% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
94% | 6% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Luis Díaz: 1+ shots | 94% |
| Breel Embolo: 1+ shots | 86% |
| Luis Suárez: 1+ shots | 86% |
| Gustavo Puerta: 1+ shots | 78% |
| Jhon Arias: 1+ shots | 78% |
| Dan Ndoye: 1+ shots | 75% |
| James Rodríguez: 1+ shots | 74% |
| Luis Díaz: 2+ shots | 73% |
| Luis Díaz: 1+ shots on target | 69% |
| Luis Suárez: 1+ shots on target | 61% |
| Granit Xhaka: 1+ shots | 59% |
| Luis Díaz: 3+ shots | 59% |
| Dan Ndoye: 2+ shots | 58% |
| Luis Suárez: 2+ shots | 56% |
| Breel Embolo: 1+ shots on target | 56% |
| Daniel Muñoz: 1+ shots | 55% |
| Jhon Arias: 2+ shots | 55% |
| Davinson Sánchez: 1+ shots | 54% |
| Denis Zakaria: 1+ shots | 54% |
| Breel Embolo: 2+ shots | 53% |
| James Rodríguez: 2+ shots | 52% |
| Jefferson Lerma: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Breel Embolo: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Dan Ndoye: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Daniel Muñoz: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Davinson Sánchez: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Granit Xhaka: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Gustavo Puerta: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| James Rodríguez: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Jefferson Lerma: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Jhon Arias: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Johan Manzambi: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Johan Manzambi: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Johan Manzambi: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Johan Mojica: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Luis Díaz: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Luis Suárez: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Ruben Vargas: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Ruben Vargas: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Ruben Vargas: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Gregor Kobel: 3+ saves | 50% |
| Breel Embolo: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Breel Embolo: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Breel Embolo: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Dan Ndoye: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Dan Ndoye: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Dan Ndoye: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Daniel Muñoz: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Daniel Muñoz: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Davinson Sánchez: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Davinson Sánchez: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Davinson Sánchez: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Granit Xhaka: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Granit Xhaka: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Granit Xhaka: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Gustavo Puerta: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Gustavo Puerta: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Gustavo Puerta: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| James Rodríguez: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| James Rodríguez: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| James Rodríguez: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Jefferson Lerma: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Jefferson Lerma: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Jhon Arias: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Jhon Arias: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Johan Manzambi: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Johan Manzambi: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Luis Díaz: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Luis Díaz: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Luis Díaz: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Luis Suárez: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Luis Suárez: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Luis Suárez: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Remo Freuler: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Remo Freuler: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Remo Freuler: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Manuel Akanji: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Denis Zakaria: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Fabian Rieder: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Fabian Rieder: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Fabian Rieder: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Fabian Rieder: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| David Ospina: 2+ saves | 49% |
| David Ospina: 3+ saves | 49% |
| David Ospina: 4+ saves | 49% |
| David Ospina: 5+ saves | 49% |
| Gregor Kobel: 2+ saves | 49% |
| Gregor Kobel: 5+ saves | 49% |
| Gustavo Puerta: 2+ shots | 47% |
| Jhon Arias: 2+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Luis Díaz: 4+ shots | 40% |
| Ruben Vargas: 1+ shots | 38% |
| Remo Freuler: 1+ shots | 36% |
| Johan Mojica: 1+ shots | 35% |
| Nico Elvedi: 1+ shots | 35% |
| Luis Suárez: 3+ shots | 34% |
| Manuel Akanji: 1+ shots | 34% |
| Gregor Kobel: 4+ saves | 32% |
| Jhon Lucumí: 1+ shots | 30% |
| Ricardo Rodriguez: 1+ shots | 30% |
| Luis Díaz: 1+ goals | 28% |
| Dan Ndoye: 1+ shots on target | 28% |
| Dan Ndoye: 3+ shots | 27% |
| Granit Xhaka: 2+ shots | 26% |
| James Rodríguez: 1+ shots on target | 26% |
| Ruben Vargas: 1+ goals + assists | 26% |
| Breel Embolo: 1+ goals | 25% |
| Luis Suárez: 1+ goals | 25% |
| Gustavo Puerta: 1+ shots on target | 25% |
| Jhon Arias: 1+ shots on target | 25% |
| Breel Embolo: 3+ shots | 24% |
| Luis Díaz: 2+ shots on target | 24% |
| Luis Díaz: 1+ goals + assists | 24% |
| Johan Mojica: 3+ shots | 23% |
| Daniel Muñoz: 4+ goals + assists | 23% |
| Jefferson Lerma: 4+ goals + assists | 23% |
| Daniel Muñoz: 1+ shots on target | 22% |
| Granit Xhaka: 1+ shots on target | 21% |
| Gustavo Puerta: 3+ shots | 20% |
| Jefferson Lerma: 1+ shots on target | 20% |
| Dan Ndoye: 1+ goals + assists | 20% |
| Jhon Arias: 3+ shots | 19% |
| Luis Díaz: 1+ assists | 19% |
| Breel Embolo: 1+ goals + assists | 19% |
| Luis Suárez: 1+ goals + assists | 19% |
| James Rodríguez: 1+ goals + assists | 18% |
| Daniel Muñoz: 2+ shots | 17% |
| Ruben Vargas: 2+ shots | 17% |
| James Rodríguez: 1+ assists | 17% |
| Breel Embolo: 2+ shots on target | 17% |
| Davinson Sánchez: 1+ shots on target | 17% |
| Luis Suárez: 2+ shots on target | 17% |
| Dan Ndoye: 1+ goals | 16% |
| James Rodríguez: 3+ shots | 16% |
| Jefferson Lerma: 2+ shots | 16% |
| Remo Freuler: 2+ shots | 16% |
| Luis Díaz: 5+ shots | 15% |
| Dan Ndoye: 2+ shots on target | 15% |
| Denis Zakaria: 1+ shots on target | 15% |
| Johan Mojica: 1+ shots on target | 15% |
| Remo Freuler: 1+ shots on target | 15% |
| James Rodríguez: 1+ goals | 14% |
| Breel Embolo: 4+ shots | 14% |
| Jhon Arias: 1+ assists | 14% |
| Gustavo Puerta: 2+ shots on target | 14% |
| James Rodríguez: 2+ shots on target | 14% |
| Jhon Arias: 2+ shots on target | 14% |
| Jhon Lucumí: 1+ shots on target | 14% |
| Luis Díaz: 3+ shots on target | 14% |
| Manuel Akanji: 1+ shots on target | 14% |
| Nico Elvedi: 1+ shots on target | 14% |
| Ricardo Rodriguez: 1+ shots on target | 14% |
| Jhon Arias: 1+ goals + assists | 14% |
| Jhon Arias: 1+ goals | 13% |
| Dan Ndoye: 4+ shots | 13% |
| Luis Suárez: 4+ shots | 13% |
| Fabian Rieder: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Ricardo Rodriguez: 2+ shots | 12% |
| Breel Embolo: 1+ assists | 12% |
| Djibril Sow: 2+ assists | 12% |
| Gustavo Puerta: 1+ assists | 12% |
| Luis Suárez: 1+ assists | 12% |
| Daniel Muñoz: 1+ goals + assists | 12% |
| Denis Zakaria: 2+ shots | 11% |
| Dan Ndoye: 1+ assists | 11% |
| Daniel Muñoz: 1+ assists | 11% |
| Granit Xhaka: 1+ assists | 11% |
| Daniel Muñoz: 1+ goals | 10% |
| Davinson Sánchez: 2+ shots | 10% |
| Jhon Arias: 4+ shots | 10% |
| Richard Ríos: 1+ assists | 10% |
| Granit Xhaka: 1+ goals + assists | 10% |
| Gustavo Puerta: 1+ goals + assists | 10% |
| Fabian Rieder: 1+ goals | 9% |
| Daniel Muñoz: 3+ shots | 9% |
| Granit Xhaka: 3+ shots | 9% |
| James Rodríguez: 4+ shots | 9% |
| Manuel Akanji: 2+ shots | 9% |
| Jefferson Lerma: 1+ assists | 9% |
| Granit Xhaka: 1+ goals | 8% |
| Ruben Vargas: 1+ goals | 8% |
| Breel Embolo: 5+ shots | 8% |
| Johan Mojica: 2+ shots | 8% |
| Ruben Vargas: 1+ assists | 8% |
| Djibril Sow: 1+ goals + assists | 8% |
| Remo Freuler: 1+ goals + assists | 8% |
| Richard Ríos: 1+ goals + assists | 8% |
| Ruben Vargas: 4+ shots | 7% |
| Jefferson Lerma: 1+ goals + assists | 7% |
| Dan Ndoye: 5+ shots | 6% |
| Denis Zakaria: 3+ shots | 6% |
| Gustavo Puerta: 5+ shots | 6% |
| Jefferson Lerma: 3+ shots | 6% |
| Jhon Lucumí: 2+ shots | 6% |
| Remo Freuler: 3+ shots | 6% |
| Ruben Vargas: 5+ shots | 6% |
| Gustavo Puerta: 1+ goals | 5% |
| Luis Díaz: 2+ goals | 5% |
| Jhon Arias: 5+ shots | 5% |
| Luis Suárez: 5+ shots | 5% |
| Nico Elvedi: 2+ shots | 5% |
| Djibril Sow: 1+ assists | 5% |
| Djibril Sow: 3+ goals + assists | 5% |
| Johan Manzambi: 3+ goals + assists | 5% |
| Richard Ríos: 3+ goals + assists | 5% |
| Ruben Vargas: 3+ goals + assists | 5% |
| Breel Embolo: 2+ goals | 4% |
| Jefferson Lerma: 1+ goals | 4% |
| Juan Fernando Quintero: 1+ goals | 4% |
| Luis Suárez: 2+ goals | 4% |
| Richard Ríos: 1+ goals | 4% |
| Gustavo Puerta: 4+ shots | 4% |
| James Rodríguez: 5+ shots | 4% |
| Jefferson Lerma: 4+ shots | 4% |
| Ruben Vargas: 3+ shots | 4% |
| Davinson Sánchez: 1+ assists | 4% |
| Luis Díaz: 2+ assists | 4% |
| Remo Freuler: 1+ assists | 4% |
| Richard Ríos: 2+ assists | 4% |
| Davinson Sánchez: 1+ goals + assists | 4% |
| Djibril Sow: 2+ goals + assists | 4% |
| Johan Manzambi: 2+ goals + assists | 4% |
| Richard Ríos: 2+ goals + assists | 4% |
| Ruben Vargas: 2+ goals + assists | 4% |
| Fabian Rieder: 1+ assists | 4% |
| Davinson Sánchez: 3+ shots | 3% |
| Gustavo Puerta: 2+ assists | 3% |
| James Rodríguez: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Jhon Arias: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Remo Freuler: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Richard Ríos: 4+ goals + assists | 3% |
| Ruben Vargas: 4+ goals + assists | 3% |
| Granit Xhaka: 4+ shots | 3% |
| Dan Ndoye: 2+ goals | 2% |
| James Rodríguez: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Jhon Arias: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Juan Fernando Quintero: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Juan Fernando Quintero: 3+ goals | 2% |
| Breel Embolo: 2+ assists | 2% |
| Dan Ndoye: 2+ assists | 2% |
| Daniel Muñoz: 2+ assists | 2% |
| Davinson Sánchez: 2+ assists | 2% |
| Granit Xhaka: 2+ assists | 2% |
| Jefferson Lerma: 2+ assists | 2% |
| Luis Suárez: 2+ assists | 2% |
| Ruben Vargas: 2+ assists | 2% |
| Djibril Sow: 4+ goals + assists | 2% |
| Breel Embolo: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Daniel Muñoz: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Fabian Rieder: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Granit Xhaka: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Gustavo Puerta: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Jefferson Lerma: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Jhon Córdoba: 1+ goals | 1% |
| Jhon Córdoba: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Luis Díaz: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Luis Suárez: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Richard Ríos: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Ruben Vargas: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Jhon Córdoba: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Johan Manzambi: 1+ goals | 0% |
| Johan Manzambi: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Michel Aebischer: 1+ goals | 0% |
| Michel Aebischer: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Johan Manzambi: 1+ shots | 0% |
| Johan Manzambi: 2+ shots | 0% |
| Johan Manzambi: 3+ shots | 0% |
| Johan Manzambi: 4+ shots | 0% |
| Johan Manzambi: 5+ shots | 0% |
| Johan Manzambi: 1+ assists | 0% |
| Johan Manzambi: 2+ assists | 0% |
| James Rodríguez: 3+ goals | 0% |
Market context
Based on real-money crowd forecasting, switzerland vs. colombia - player props stands at 94% likelihood according to current market consensus. Player prop markets for the FIFA World Cup game between Switzerland and Colombia, scheduled for July 7 at 4:00 PM ET.
Methodology
Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for Switzerland vs. Colombia - Player Props plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.
Resolution & payout
For political markets the resolution source is decisive. Polymarket defines a concrete source per contract (e.g. AP, Reuters, official electoral commission) and uses the UMA Optimistic Oracle as the on-chain dispute mechanism. With a clearly defined outcome the USDC payout lands within minutes of the final confirmation.
FAQ
- How accurate are political prediction markets?
- Historically more accurate than polls. Polymarket's Brier score on US 2024 elections was ~0.11 — better than 538 (~0.14) and every mainstream poll. Markets aggregate information with real skin in the game.
- Can prediction markets influence election outcomes?
- Markets reflect expectations rather than create them. Studies show public-facing markets can anchor expectations, but don't influence the underlying outcome. Political markets are information, not advocacy.
- Which platform has the deepest political liquidity?
- Polymarket — by far. US 2024 presidential volume was ~$3.5B vs Kalshi (~$200M) and Betfair (~$120M). Where Polymarket is geo-blocked, brokers like Trump Prediction route into the same order book at 0% fees.
- How fast do political markets react to news?
- High-liquidity markets move within seconds to minutes. A Trump tweet on the economy can shift the "Trump 2024" market 2-5 points before mainstream media has written anything.
- Why do Polymarket and Kalshi differ on elections?
- Kalshi must follow CFTC compliance — strict definitions, clear resolution sources, US citizens only with KYC. Polymarket operates globally without CFTC oversight — deeper liquidity, but also higher regulatory risk.
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