Egypt vs. IR Iran

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The underlying real-world event is the final Group G match of the 2026 FIFA World Cup, played on Friday, 26 June 2026 in Seattle between Egypt and Iran. A win for Egypt secures automatic qualification to the Round of 32 with seven points, while Iran must rely on goal difference or a draw to progress, given their current two-loss record in the group.

Historically, teams entering a final group match with two defeats face a steep probability cliff; comparable cases from 2018 and 2022 show such sides win roughly 15–20% of their decisive games, aligning closely with the current 25% crowd-implied probability for Egypt. The market leans on the geopolitical catalyst of the Trump administration’s recent decision to permit Iran’s entry into the US two days pre-match, as reported by Al Jazeera, which may affect team morale and travel logistics despite strict departure mandates.

Traders should monitor the Department of Homeland Security’s final travel clearance for Iran’s squad and any pre-match tactical announcements from Egypt’s coach Hassan regarding his defensive midfield pivot, which Reuters notes as critical to neutralising Iran’s counter-attacks. The settlement window ends 03:00 GMT on 27 June, with live coverage on ESPN and FIFA highlighting the match’s high stakes amid ongoing geopolitical tensions between the two nations.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page tracks Egypt vs. IR Iran across four political prediction venues. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book (the deepest political prediction-market book). Kalshi is the CFTC-regulated US alternative, Betfair the established UK sports-exchange with politics markets, Manifold the open play-money variant. Trump Prediction routes every trade through to Polymarket — at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Trump Prediction?

Zero. Trump Prediction routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Trump Prediction triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.