Jordan vs. Algeria

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Jordan face Algeria in the FIFA World Cup group stage at Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara, with kick-off set for 23:00 ET on 22 June / 03:00 UTC on 23 June. The market’s **24% YES** looks like an underdog price rather than a coin-flip, which fits the wider bracket: Flashscore has Algeria at FIFA rank **28** and Jordan at **63**, while FIFA’s match centre confirms the fixture and timing. [2][4]

For a reference point, this kind of pricing usually tracks the gap between a side’s qualification record, ranking, and recent tournament results rather than any single pre-match headline. Algeria are being treated as the more established side, and ESPN’s preview notes Jordan “put up a good fight” in an earlier loss while Algeria were also coming off a difficult opener, which helps explain why the market is not assigning a near-zero chance despite the ranking difference. [1] The probability is therefore leaning on *relative team strength and tournament pedigree*, not on a late-breaking narrative.

The main catalyst to watch is the final team news and any last-minute injury or line-up declarations before kick-off; ESPN says both injury context and predicted line-ups are part of the live build-up, and the match will be broadcast across ITV, Fox Sports, Zee5 and SBS. [1] If the market moves, it is more likely to respond to confirmed starting XIs, goalkeeper or striker changes, and any pre-match scheduling or availability news than to broader polling-style signals. In other words, the crowd price is leaning on **team-sheet confirmation** rather than a campaign-style disclosure or debate calendar. [1][4]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page tracks Jordan vs. Algeria across four political prediction venues. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book (the deepest political prediction-market book). Kalshi is the CFTC-regulated US alternative, Betfair the established UK sports-exchange with politics markets, Manifold the open play-money variant. Trump Prediction routes every trade through to Polymarket — at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Trump Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Trump Prediction is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Trump Prediction?

Zero. Trump Prediction routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.