Türkiye vs. United States - Halftime Result

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Market context

The upcoming FIFA World Cup Group D match between Türkiye and the United States takes place at Los Angeles Stadium on 25 June 2026, with the US having already secured top spot in the group. Türkiye, winless after two games and trailing by three goals, faces a must-win scenario to avoid elimination, while the Americans can play with minimal pressure. The market currently assigns zero probability to a Turkish win at halftime, reflecting their poor recent form and the US’s defensive strength.

Historically, teams returning to the World Cup after long absences, like Türkiye’s 24-year gap, often struggle in early matches. Australia’s 2-0 victory over Türkiye on 14 June 2026 underscores this vulnerability, as Türkiye failed to score in both group games so far [1]. Comparable cases show that winless sides facing group leaders rarely dominate the first 45 minutes, especially when the leading team has already won the group and can rotate players [2].

Traders should monitor pre-match line-up announcements, particularly whether the US fields a full-strength defence or a rotated squad, and any late tactical shifts from Türkiye’s coach. The US’s decision to prioritise rest over intensity could open chances, but Türkiye’s lack of goals remains the primary catalyst for the zero probability lean [7]. Recent campaign-finance disclosures from football federations are not directly relevant, but match-day declarations on player fitness will be critical. The market is leaning on Türkiye’s inability to score, as confirmed by their last two matches [1].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page tracks Türkiye vs. United States - Halftime Result across four political prediction venues. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book (the deepest political prediction-market book). Kalshi is the CFTC-regulated US alternative, Betfair the established UK sports-exchange with politics markets, Manifold the open play-money variant. Trump Prediction routes every trade through to Polymarket — at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Trump Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Trump Prediction is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Trump Prediction?

Zero. Trump Prediction routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.