United States vs. Paraguay - Exact Score

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The United States will face Paraguay in the group stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup on 12 June, with the match scheduled for 9:00 PM ET. This market resolves on the exact final score after 90 minutes of regulation play plus stoppage time, excluding extra time and penalty shootouts. The 12% implied probability for a specific scoreline reflects the inherent difficulty in predicting precise match outcomes; across major tournaments, exact scores occur with low frequency because even modest variations in goal tallies eliminate most pre-match predictions.

Historical precedent suggests caution in backing any single scoreline. In the 2022 World Cup group stage, exact-score markets across all matches showed winning probabilities typically between 8–15% for favoured outcomes, with most settling to "Any Other Score." The US–Paraguay fixture carries additional uncertainty: Paraguay qualified for 2026 after finishing fifth in CONMEBOL qualifying, whilst the US earned an automatic berth as co-hosts. Head-to-head records show competitive matches; their last competitive encounter in 2016 Copa América ended 1–1.

Traders should monitor team news and squad announcements from both federations in the weeks preceding the match, particularly regarding key player availability and tactical adjustments. The US coaching staff's formation preferences and Paraguay's defensive setup will influence goal-scoring likelihood. Fixture congestion in the group stage—with both teams potentially managing rotation—may affect intensity. Recent World Cup group-stage results demonstrate that matches involving CONMEBOL sides often produce narrow scorelines, with 1–0, 1–1, and 2–1 outcomes appearing more frequently than higher-scoring draws.

Methodology

This page tracks United States vs. Paraguay - Exact Score across four political prediction venues. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book (the deepest political prediction-market book). Kalshi is the CFTC-regulated US alternative, Betfair the established UK sports-exchange with politics markets, Manifold the open play-money variant. Trump Prediction routes every trade through to Polymarket — at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

For political markets the resolution source is decisive. Polymarket defines a concrete source per contract (e.g. AP, Reuters, official electoral commission) and uses the UMA Optimistic Oracle as the on-chain dispute mechanism. With a clearly defined outcome the USDC payout lands within minutes of the final confirmation.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Trump Prediction is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Trump Prediction?

Zero. Trump Prediction routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.