United States vs. Paraguay - More Markets

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The United States men's national football team faces Paraguay in a FIFA World Cup qualifier on 12 June 2026, with the match scheduled for 9:00 PM ET. The current crowd-implied probability of 23% for additional markets being offered suggests traders are pricing in moderate uncertainty about whether supplementary betting options will become available beyond the standard match outcomes and goal-line markets.

Historical precedent from previous World Cup cycles indicates that major broadcasters and sportsbooks typically expand market depth for high-profile fixtures, particularly those involving the USMNT. The 2022 Qatar tournament saw extensive market proliferation for American matches, with secondary markets on corner counts, card distributions, and player-specific performance metrics becoming standard offerings within 48 hours of kickoff. Paraguay's status as a lower-ranked opponent (currently ranked 81st by FIFA) may reduce the urgency of market expansion compared to group-stage fixtures against traditional powers, though the CONCACAF-CONMEBOL playoff context could alter that calculus.

The settlement window closes on 13 June at 01:00 UTC, providing a narrow window for market activation. Traders should monitor sportsbook announcements from major operators—particularly DraftKings, FanDuel, and international exchanges—between 10 and 11 June, as these typically signal broader market availability. Fixture confirmation and team sheet releases on 11 June will influence whether operators judge sufficient trading interest to justify additional market creation. Weather conditions in the host nation and any late injury announcements could also trigger expanded betting options focused on specific performance variables.

Methodology

Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for United States vs. Paraguay - More Markets plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.

Resolution & payout

Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Trump Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.