Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Trump Prediction Pick polygram.ink |
44% | 56% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open on Trump Prediction → |
Polymarket polymarket.com |
44% | 56% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open on Trump Prediction → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open on Trump Prediction → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open on Trump Prediction → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open on Trump Prediction → |
Live odds for Polymarket-based markets come from the Polygon order book. Non-Polymarket venues show attributes only; clicking any row opens the market on Trump Prediction.
Active sub-markets
| Stuttgart Open: Pierre-Hugues Herbert vs Martin Landaluce | 44% Pierre-Hugues Herbert | 56% Martin Landaluce |
| Completed Match | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Stuttgart Open: Pierre-Hugues Herbert vs Martin Landaluce Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 100% Over | 0% Under |
| Stuttgart Open: Pierre-Hugues Herbert vs Martin Landaluce Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 100% Over | 0% Under |
| Stuttgart Open: Pierre-Hugues Herbert vs Martin Landaluce Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 100% Over | 0% Under |
| Stuttgart Open: Pierre-Hugues Herbert vs Martin Landaluce Set 1 Winner | 100% Herbert | 0% Landaluce |
Market context
Market consensus: 44% chance of stuttgart open: pierre-hugues herbert vs martin landaluce. Prediction markets aggregate real capital to produce this probability signal. This market refers to the tennis match between Pierre-Hugues Herbert and Martin Landaluce in the Stuttgart Open, originally scheduled for June 8, 2026 at 6:30AM ET. This market wi…
Methodology
Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for Stuttgart Open: Pierre-Hugues Herbert vs Martin Landaluce plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.
Resolution & payout
For political markets the resolution source is decisive. Polymarket defines a concrete source per contract (e.g. AP, Reuters, official electoral commission) and uses the UMA Optimistic Oracle as the on-chain dispute mechanism. With a clearly defined outcome the USDC payout lands within minutes of the final confirmation.
FAQ
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Trump Prediction triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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