Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Trump Prediction) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
91% | 9% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
91% | 9% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| 1Q Spread -0.5 | 91% |
| 1Q Spread -1.5 | 91% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 91% |
| Spread -1.5 | 89% |
| O/U 28.5 | 87% |
| Spread -2.5 | 85% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 82% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 82% |
| Spread -3.5 | 80% |
| Spread -4.5 | 79% |
| Spread -5.5 | 79% |
| Spread -6.5 | 79% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 79% |
| Penn State O/U 21.5 | 78% |
| O/U 26.5 | 77% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 77% |
| 2Q O/U 13.5 | 75% |
| 2Q O/U 16.5 | 74% |
| Spread -7.5 | 73% |
| O/U 24.5 | 72% |
| Spread -9.5 | 71% |
| 4Q O/U 7.5 | 70% |
| O/U 34.5 | 69% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 69% |
| 2Q Spread -5.5 | 68% |
| 1H O/U 20.5 | 66% |
| Spread -10.5 | 65% |
| O/U 30.5 | 65% |
| Spread -11.5 | 64% |
| 2Q O/U 19.5 | 64% |
| Penn State O/U 24.5 | 64% |
| O/U 32.5 | 63% |
| 1H O/U 23.5 | 61% |
| Spread -8.5 | 60% |
| Spread -13.5 | 59% |
| O/U 38.5 | 56% |
| Spread -14.5 | 53% |
| Spread -15.5 | 53% |
| O/U 36.5 | 53% |
| 4Q O/U 10.5 | 53% |
| O/U 40.5 | 51% |
| Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| Spread -26.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 26.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 29.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 22.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 25.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 28.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Wisconsin O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| Wisconsin O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Penn State O/U 27.5 | 50% |
| Wisconsin 1H O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Wisconsin 1H O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| Wisconsin 1H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Penn State 1H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Penn State 1H O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Penn State 1H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Wisconsin 2H O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Wisconsin 2H O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| Wisconsin 2H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Penn State 2H O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| Penn State 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Penn State 2H O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Moneyline | 50% |
| Penn State O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Wisconsin O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| 1H Moneyline | 50% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - 2H | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - 1H | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q2 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q4 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q1 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q3 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q2 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q4 | 50% |
| Kickoff or Punt Return Touchdown | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q3 | 50% |
| Game Goes to Overtime | 50% |
| Wisconsin vs. Penn State: Total Touchdowns O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Pick-Six Scored | 50% |
| Wisconsin vs. Penn State: Total Touchdowns O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Wisconsin vs. Penn State: Total Touchdowns O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Wisconsin Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Wisconsin Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Penn State Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Penn State Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Penn State Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Wisconsin Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Wisconsin Total Passing Yards: O/U 200.5 | 50% |
| Penn State Total Passing Yards: O/U 225.5 | 50% |
| Wisconsin Total Passing Yards: O/U 250.5 | 50% |
| Wisconsin Total Passing Yards: O/U 225.5 | 50% |
| Wisconsin Total Rushing Yards: O/U 125.5 | 50% |
| Penn State Total Passing Yards: O/U 250.5 | 50% |
| Penn State Total Passing Yards: O/U 200.5 | 50% |
| Wisconsin Total Rushing Yards: O/U 150.5 | 50% |
| Wisconsin Total Rushing Yards: O/U 175.5 | 50% |
| Wisconsin Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Penn State Total Rushing Yards: O/U 150.5 | 50% |
| Penn State Total Rushing Yards: O/U 125.5 | 50% |
| Penn State Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Wisconsin Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 375.5 | 50% |
| Penn State Total Rushing Yards: O/U 175.5 | 50% |
| Wisconsin Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 400.5 | 50% |
| Penn State Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 375.5 | 50% |
| Wisconsin 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Wisconsin 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Penn State Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 400.5 | 50% |
| Wisconsin Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Penn State 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Penn State 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Wisconsin Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Wisconsin Field Goals Made: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Penn State Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Penn State Field Goals Made: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Wisconsin Total Receptions: O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Penn State Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Wisconsin Total Receptions: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Wisconsin Total Receptions: O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| Penn State Total Receptions: O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Penn State Total Receptions: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Penn State Total Receptions: O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| Penn State Total First Downs: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Wisconsin Total First Downs: O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| Wisconsin Total First Downs: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Wisconsin Total First Downs: O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| Penn State Total First Downs: O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| Penn State Total First Downs: O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| Wisconsin vs. Penn State: Total 4th Down Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Wisconsin vs. Penn State: Total Successful Two-Point Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Wisconsin vs. Penn State: Total Defensive/Special Teams Touchdowns O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Spread -16.5 | 49% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 49% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 49% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 49% |
| 3Q Spread -1.5 | 48% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 47% |
| Spread -12.5 | 46% |
| O/U 42.5 | 45% |
| Spread -17.5 | 44% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 44% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 42% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 42% |
| 3Q Spread -5.5 | 39% |
| O/U 44.5 | 37% |
| 4Q O/U 16.5 | 36% |
| Spread -18.5 | 34% |
| Spread -20.5 | 34% |
| 3Q O/U 12.5 | 34% |
| O/U 46.5 | 32% |
| O/U 48.5 | 32% |
| Wisconsin O/U 17.5 | 32% |
| O/U 54.5 | 31% |
| O/U 56.5 | 31% |
| Penn State O/U 30.5 | 31% |
| O/U 50.5 | 30% |
| O/U 60.5 | 30% |
| O/U 62.5 | 28% |
| Spread -23.5 | 27% |
| 4Q O/U 13.5 | 27% |
| Penn State O/U 33.5 | 27% |
| Spread -24.5 | 23% |
| Wisconsin O/U 23.5 | 20% |
| Wisconsin O/U 20.5 | 19% |
| O/U 52.5 | 17% |
| Spread -27.5 | 16% |
| Spread -30.5 | 11% |
| Wisconsin vs. Penn State | 10% |
| 1Q Spread -1.5 | 10% |
| 1Q Spread -5.5 | 10% |
| 1Q O/U 3.5 | 10% |
| 1Q O/U 6.5 | 10% |
| 1Q O/U 9.5 | 10% |
| 1Q O/U 15.5 | 10% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 10% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q1 | 10% |
| Spread -4.5 | 9% |
| O/U 58.5 | 9% |
| 1Q O/U 12.5 | 9% |
| Spread -3.5 | 8% |
| Spread -6.5 | 6% |
| Spread -7.5 | 5% |
| Spread -10.5 | 2% |
| O/U 64.5 | 2% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 1% |
Market context
Wisconsin vs. Penn State. The market is currently pricing the outcome at 10% YES, meaning crowd-implied probability sits at that level. Settlement is scheduled for 2026-09-26T21:00:00Z. Unlike a sportsbook, the price you see is set by buyers and sellers competing in a live order book — there is no house edge or bookmaker margin to fade.
Sports outcome markets resolve from official league data once the contest finishes. Pricing typically tightens through the warm-up window as line-ups, weather, and starting-pitcher data become public, then moves on goals or runs in real time.
Watch for the underlying catalysts that move this category: each official announcement, dataset release, or scheduled milestone generally produces a step change in the implied probability. Trades execute instantly on Polygon, and shares pay $1 each at resolution if your side wins.
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $344K.
Methodology
Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for Wisconsin vs. Penn State plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.
Resolution & payout
For political markets the resolution source is decisive. Polymarket defines a concrete source per contract (e.g. AP, Reuters, official electoral commission) and uses the UMA Optimistic Oracle as the on-chain dispute mechanism. With a clearly defined outcome the USDC payout lands within minutes of the final confirmation.
UK Frequently Asked Questions
- How accurate are political prediction markets?
- Historically more accurate than polls. Polymarket's Brier score on US 2024 elections was ~0.11 — better than 538 (~0.14) and every mainstream poll. Markets aggregate information with real skin in the game.
- What resolution source is used for elections?
- Polymarket defines the source per contract — usually Associated Press (AP Race Call), Reuters or the official electoral commission. The source is stated in contract details before the market opens.
- Which platform has the deepest political liquidity?
- Polymarket — by far. US 2024 presidential volume was ~$3.5B vs Kalshi (~$200M) and Betfair (~$120M). Where Polymarket is geo-blocked, brokers like Trump Prediction route into the same order book at 0% fees.
- Why do Polymarket and Kalshi differ on elections?
- Kalshi must follow CFTC compliance — strict definitions, clear resolution sources, US citizens only with KYC. Polymarket operates globally without CFTC oversight — deeper liquidity, but also higher regulatory risk.
- Are UK election prediction markets available from the UK?
- Yes. Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer UKGC-regulated UK election markets (seat counts, party share, constituency results). Polymarket also lists UK election contracts with deeper global liquidity. Betfair winnings are typically tax-free for UK individuals; Polymarket profits are subject to HMRC CGT.
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