Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Trump Prediction Pick polygram.ink |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open on Trump Prediction → |
Polymarket polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open on Trump Prediction → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open on Trump Prediction → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open on Trump Prediction → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open on Trump Prediction → |
Live odds for Polymarket-based markets come from the Polygon order book. Non-Polymarket venues show attributes only; clicking any row opens the market on Trump Prediction.
Active sub-markets
| Match Winner | 100% Grind Back | 0% Carstensz |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 0% Over | 100% Under |
| Game Handicap: Grind (-1.5) vs Carstensz (+1.5) | 100% Grind Back | 0% Carstensz |
| First Blood in Game 1? | 0% Grind Back | 100% Carstensz |
| Total Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 1? | 0% Over | 100% Under |
| First Blood in Game 2? | 0% Grind Back | 100% Carstensz |
Market context
Dota 2: Grind Back vs Carstensz (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Closed Qualifier Playoffs — current market-implied probability: 100%. This market refers to the Dota 2 Lower bracket round 2 match between Grind Back and Carstensz in the The International Southeast Asia Closed Qualifier Playoffs, initially scheduled for June 20 at 10:0…
Methodology
Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for Dota 2: Grind Back vs Carstensz (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Closed Qualifier Playoffs plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.
Resolution & payout
For political markets the resolution source is decisive. Polymarket defines a concrete source per contract (e.g. AP, Reuters, official electoral commission) and uses the UMA Optimistic Oracle as the on-chain dispute mechanism. With a clearly defined outcome the USDC payout lands within minutes of the final confirmation.
FAQ
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- What does it cost to trade on Trump Prediction?
- Zero. Trump Prediction routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Trump Prediction triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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