United States vs. Germany

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

A friendly international football match between the United States and Germany is scheduled for Saturday, 6 June 2026. The market settlement hinges on whether the US wins outright in regular time; draws and German victories both resolve as NO. The 0% implied probability reflects the historical strength differential between the two nations' senior men's teams, though friendlies carry inherent volatility absent from competitive fixtures.

The US has won only three times against Germany in 26 all-time meetings, with the most recent victory occurring in 1998. Germany has claimed 16 wins across this span, establishing a clear historical advantage. However, the 2026 context differs materially from prior decades: the US will be co-hosting the FIFA World Cup that summer, affording the squad preparation matches against elite opposition and domestic support advantages. Germany, conversely, enters 2026 in a rebuilding phase following disappointing Euro 2024 results, having exited in the group stage. This generational transition creates asymmetry not present in earlier matchups.

The fixture's timing—occurring just weeks before World Cup group play begins—makes it a critical preparation tool for both federations. Recent friendly results and squad announcements from both nations' coaching staff will signal tactical priorities and player fitness levels. Traders should monitor team news releases and friendly-match lineups in the weeks preceding 6 June, as starting XI composition and injury status will substantially influence match dynamics. The settlement window closes immediately after full-time, eliminating any ambiguity around extra time or penalties.

Methodology

Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for United States vs. Germany plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.

Resolution & payout

Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Trump Prediction is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Trump Prediction?

Zero. Trump Prediction routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.