Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina - Exact Score

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Canada and Bosnia-Herzegovina are scheduled to meet in the 2026 FIFA World Cup group stage on 12 June at 3:00 PM ET. The market resolves on the exact final score after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, with any unmatched outcome settling as "Any Other Score." The 10% implied probability for a specific scoreline reflects the inherent difficulty of predicting precise match results in international football, where outcomes distribute across dozens of plausible combinations.

Historical precedent suggests exact-score markets in World Cup fixtures typically see winning probabilities between 8% and 15% for individual outcomes, depending on team strength and expected goal differential. Canada's recent competitive record shows inconsistent attacking output—they qualified for the 2022 World Cup but scored only 5 goals across three group matches. Bosnia-Herzegovina, ranked lower in FIFA standings, has similarly struggled with offensive consistency in qualifying campaigns. The 10% probability here reflects a market assessment that neither team is favoured to produce a dominant performance, concentrating probability mass on lower-scoring draws and narrow victories rather than blowouts.

Traders should monitor team news releases and squad announcements as the match approaches, particularly regarding injury status of key attacking players. Recent UEFA Nations League and World Cup qualifying results will provide updated form indicators closer to June 2026. The scheduling context matters: group-stage positioning and previous results will influence tactical approach, potentially affecting expected goal totals. Any late-stage withdrawals or squad changes could shift probability distributions across scorelines, particularly if either side loses a primary striker or goalkeeper.

Methodology

Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina - Exact Score plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.

Resolution & payout

Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Trump Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Trump Prediction triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.