Colombia vs. DR Congo - Exact Score

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The real-world event is the FIFA World Cup Group K match between Colombia and DR Congo in Guadalajara, scheduled to kick off on 23 June 2026 at 10:00 PM ET, where the market resolves on the exact score after 90 minutes of regulation. Colombia, having won their last three World Cup games against African opposition, faces a DR Congo side that recently secured a historic 1-1 draw against Portugal, marking their first-ever point in the tournament[1][5]. This 9% crowd-implied probability for a specific score reflects the rarity of precise outcomes in football, comparable to historical cases where teams with contrasting form—such as a South American side with a strong record versus an African team building momentum after a breakthrough—produce unpredictable results that often default to "Any Other Score" when the exact tally is not met[1][5].

Traders should monitor pre-match declarations from both coaches, particularly any tactical shifts announced by Néstor Lorenzo or Sébastien Desabre, as well as the latest campaign-finance disclosures that might indicate squad depth or morale issues. The market leans heavily on the catalyst of DR Congo’s recent psychological boost from their Portugal result, which could influence their defensive resilience against Colombia’s attacking pressure[1]. According to FIFA’s official match centre, the game is set for 02:00 on 24 June in Guadalajara, meaning any postponement would keep the market open until completion, while a cancellation with no replay would leave it unresolved[4]. Recent news from CAF highlights DR Congo’s intent to build on their Portugal performance, suggesting their approach may be more cautious than anticipated, a factor that could sway the exact score outcome[1].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page tracks Colombia vs. DR Congo - Exact Score across four political prediction venues. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book (the deepest political prediction-market book). Kalshi is the CFTC-regulated US alternative, Betfair the established UK sports-exchange with politics markets, Manifold the open play-money variant. Trump Prediction routes every trade through to Polymarket — at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Trump Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Trump Prediction?

Zero. Trump Prediction routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Trump Prediction triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.