Tunisia vs. Netherlands - Exact Score

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Market context

The upcoming FIFA World Cup Group F match between Tunisia and the Netherlands, scheduled for 7:00 PM ET on 25 June 2026 at Kansas City Stadium, is the real-world event driving this market. Tunisia has lost both prior World Cup games in this tournament, falling 4-0 to Japan and 5-1 to Sweden, while the Netherlands aim to top the group. The market currently prices an exact score outcome at 9% probability, reflecting the high uncertainty of a specific result in a match where both teams have shown defensive frailty recently [1][2].

Historically, Tunisia and the Netherlands have met three times previously with no Tunisian wins and two draws, suggesting a tight contest where a specific scoreline is statistically rare [7]. Comparable Group F matches in recent World Cups often end with one-goal margins or draws, making any exact score a low-probability event by default. The 9% crowd-implied probability aligns with this pattern, as specific outcomes in matches involving teams with recent heavy losses typically carry minimal market weight unless a clear tactical narrative emerges [1][6].

Traders should monitor Hervé Renard’s pre-match declarations regarding Tunisia’s defensive setup and any late squad announcements from the Dutch camp, as these catalysts could shift the exact score probability [3]. Recent campaign-finance disclosures from national football associations are unlikely to impact this fixture, but polling aggregators like ESPN’s live match updates may reveal early tactical shifts that influence the final score [1]. The market is leaning on Renard’s ability to spark Tunisia’s revival after two heavy defeats, a narrative that could either tighten the match or lead to a high-scoring affair if the Dutch press aggressively [3][5].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page tracks Tunisia vs. Netherlands - Exact Score across four political prediction venues. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book (the deepest political prediction-market book). Kalshi is the CFTC-regulated US alternative, Betfair the established UK sports-exchange with politics markets, Manifold the open play-money variant. Trump Prediction routes every trade through to Polymarket — at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Trump Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What does it cost to trade on Trump Prediction?

Zero. Trump Prediction routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

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How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.