Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Trump Prediction) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
90% | 10% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
90% | 10% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Folarin Balogun: 1+ shots | 90% |
| Christian Pulisic: 1+ shots | 88% |
| Folarin Balogun: 2+ shots | 79% |
| Leandro Trossard: 1+ shots | 79% |
| Youri Tielemans: 2+ shots | 76% |
| Youri Tielemans: 1+ shots | 71% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 1+ shots | 69% |
| Sergiño Dest: 1+ shots | 69% |
| Malik Tillman: 1+ shots | 68% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 1+ shots | 65% |
| Weston McKennie: 1+ shots | 65% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 1+ shots | 64% |
| Leandro Trossard: 2+ shots | 62% |
| Christian Pulisic: 2+ shots | 60% |
| Folarin Balogun: 3+ shots | 59% |
| Tyler Adams: 1+ shots | 57% |
| Christian Pulisic: 1+ goals + assists | 52% |
| Folarin Balogun: 1+ goals + assists | 51% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 1+ goals + assists | 51% |
| Brandon Mechele: 1+ shots | 51% |
| Maxim De Cuyper: 1+ shots | 51% |
| Christian Pulisic: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Folarin Balogun: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Leandro Trossard: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Matt Turner: 2+ saves | 50% |
| Matt Turner: 4+ saves | 50% |
| Matt Turner: 5+ saves | 50% |
| Thibaut Courtois: 5+ saves | 50% |
| Christian Pulisic: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Christian Pulisic: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Folarin Balogun: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Folarin Balogun: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Leandro Trossard: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Haji Wright: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Timothy Castagne: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Weston McKennie: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Weston McKennie: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Youri Tielemans: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Brandon Mechele: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Timothy Castagne: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Weston McKennie: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Weston McKennie: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Youri Tielemans: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Tyler Adams: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Brenden Aaronson: 2+ assists | 50% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 2+ assists | 50% |
| Jeremy Doku: 2+ assists | 50% |
| Malik Tillman: 2+ assists | 50% |
| Alex Freeman: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Alex Freeman: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Antonee Robinson: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Antonee Robinson: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Chris Richards: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Chris Richards: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Malik Tillman: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Malik Tillman: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Malik Tillman: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Maxim De Cuyper: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Maxim De Cuyper: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Sergiño Dest: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Sergiño Dest: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Tim Ream: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Tyler Adams: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Tyler Adams: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Brenden Aaronson: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Jeremy Doku: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Jeremy Doku: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Jeremy Doku: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Malik Tillman: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Malik Tillman: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Malik Tillman: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Sergiño Dest: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Sergiño Dest: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Sergiño Dest: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Maxim De Cuyper: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Christian Pulisic: 1+ shots on target | 49% |
| Christian Pulisic: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 1+ shots on target | 49% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 3+ shots on target | 49% |
| Folarin Balogun: 1+ shots on target | 49% |
| Folarin Balogun: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Folarin Balogun: 4+ shots on target | 49% |
| Haji Wright: 1+ shots on target | 49% |
| Haji Wright: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Haji Wright: 3+ shots on target | 49% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 1+ shots on target | 49% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 3+ shots on target | 49% |
| Leandro Trossard: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Leandro Trossard: 3+ shots on target | 49% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 1+ shots on target | 49% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 3+ shots on target | 49% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 1+ shots on target | 49% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Matt Turner: 3+ saves | 49% |
| Thibaut Courtois: 2+ saves | 49% |
| Thibaut Courtois: 3+ saves | 49% |
| Thibaut Courtois: 4+ saves | 49% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 4+ shots on target | 49% |
| Brandon Mechele: 1+ shots on target | 49% |
| Weston McKennie: 3+ shots on target | 49% |
| Youri Tielemans: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Brandon Mechele: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Brandon Mechele: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Timothy Castagne: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Timothy Castagne: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Weston McKennie: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Weston McKennie: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Youri Tielemans: 1+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Youri Tielemans: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Youri Tielemans: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Brenden Aaronson: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Hans Vanaken: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Malik Tillman: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Sergiño Dest: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Timothy Castagne: 3+ shots | 48% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 1+ goals + assists | 45% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 1+ goals + assists | 45% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 1+ goals + assists | 45% |
| Christian Pulisic: 2+ goals + assists | 44% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 2+ goals + assists | 44% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 2+ goals + assists | 44% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 2+ goals + assists | 44% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 2+ goals + assists | 43% |
| Leandro Trossard: 2+ goals + assists | 43% |
| Malik Tillman: 2+ shots | 43% |
| Folarin Balogun: 3+ goals + assists | 42% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 4+ goals + assists | 42% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 4+ goals + assists | 42% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 4+ goals + assists | 41% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 3+ goals + assists | 41% |
| Leandro Trossard: 3+ goals + assists | 41% |
| Christian Pulisic: 3+ shots | 40% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 2+ shots | 40% |
| Alex Freeman: 1+ shots | 40% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 2+ shots | 39% |
| Folarin Balogun: 1+ goals | 38% |
| Maxim De Cuyper: 2+ shots | 38% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 2+ shots | 35% |
| Leandro Trossard: 3+ shots | 35% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 1+ shots | 34% |
| Chris Richards: 1+ shots | 34% |
| Timothy Castagne: 1+ shots | 33% |
| Antonee Robinson: 1+ shots | 33% |
| Weston McKennie: 2+ shots | 32% |
| Christian Pulisic: 1+ goals | 31% |
| Haji Wright: 1+ shots | 31% |
| Leandro Trossard: 1+ goals + assists | 28% |
| Sergiño Dest: 2+ shots | 28% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 3+ shots | 26% |
| Youri Tielemans: 3+ shots | 25% |
| Tim Ream: 1+ shots | 25% |
| Haji Wright: 3+ shots | 24% |
| Folarin Balogun: 4+ shots | 22% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 3+ shots | 22% |
| Leandro Trossard: 1+ goals | 21% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 1+ goals | 21% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 2+ shots | 21% |
| Christian Pulisic: 1+ assists | 21% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 3+ shots | 20% |
| Haji Wright: 2+ shots | 20% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 3+ shots | 20% |
| Leandro Trossard: 1+ assists | 19% |
| Malik Tillman: 3+ shots | 18% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 1+ goals | 17% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 1+ goals | 17% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 1+ assists | 17% |
| Weston McKennie: 1+ assists | 15% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 1+ goals | 14% |
| Christian Pulisic: 4+ shots | 14% |
| Leandro Trossard: 4+ shots | 14% |
| Folarin Balogun: 5+ shots | 13% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 4+ shots | 13% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Weston McKennie: 1+ goals | 13% |
| Weston McKennie: 3+ shots | 13% |
| Weston McKennie: 5+ shots | 13% |
| Alex Freeman: 2+ shots | 13% |
| Jeremy Doku: 1+ assists | 13% |
| Youri Tielemans: 1+ goals | 12% |
| Maxim De Cuyper: 3+ shots | 12% |
| Tyler Adams: 2+ shots | 12% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 4+ shots | 11% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 4+ shots | 11% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 1+ assists | 11% |
| Folarin Balogun: 1+ assists | 11% |
| Brandon Mechele: 2+ shots | 11% |
| Sergiño Dest: 3+ shots | 11% |
| Haji Wright: 5+ shots | 10% |
| Gio Reyna: 1+ goals | 10% |
| Sergiño Dest: 1+ goals | 10% |
| Antonee Robinson: 2+ shots | 10% |
| Chris Richards: 2+ shots | 10% |
| Malik Tillman: 4+ shots | 10% |
| Malik Tillman: 1+ assists | 10% |
| Folarin Balogun: 2+ goals | 9% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 5+ shots | 9% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 1+ assists | 9% |
| Chris Richards: 3+ shots | 9% |
| Christian Pulisic: 5+ shots | 8% |
| Weston McKennie: 4+ shots | 8% |
| Youri Tielemans: 4+ shots | 8% |
| Youri Tielemans: 1+ assists | 8% |
| Jeremy Doku: 1+ goals | 8% |
| Malik Tillman: 1+ goals | 8% |
| Brenden Aaronson: 1+ goals + assists | 8% |
| Hans Vanaken: 1+ goals + assists | 8% |
| Haji Wright: 1+ goals | 7% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 1+ goals | 7% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 2+ goals | 7% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 5+ shots | 7% |
| Leandro Trossard: 5+ shots | 7% |
| Timothy Castagne: 2+ shots | 7% |
| Sergiño Dest: 1+ assists | 7% |
| Christian Pulisic: 2+ goals | 6% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 4+ shots | 6% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 2+ assists | 6% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 1+ assists | 6% |
| Brandon Mechele: 2+ assists | 6% |
| Timothy Castagne: 2+ assists | 6% |
| Weston McKennie: 2+ assists | 6% |
| Tim Ream: 2+ shots | 6% |
| Sergiño Dest: 2+ assists | 6% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 2+ goals | 5% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 5+ shots | 5% |
| Haji Wright: 4+ shots | 5% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 5+ shots | 5% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 1+ assists | 5% |
| Brandon Mechele: 1+ goals + assists | 5% |
| Hans Vanaken: 1+ goals | 5% |
| Alex Freeman: 3+ shots | 5% |
| Malik Tillman: 5+ shots | 5% |
| Sergiño Dest: 4+ shots | 5% |
| Brenden Aaronson: 1+ assists | 5% |
| Hans Vanaken: 1+ assists | 5% |
| Hans Vanaken: 3+ goals + assists | 5% |
| Jeremy Doku: 3+ goals + assists | 5% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 2+ assists | 4% |
| Brandon Mechele: 3+ shots | 4% |
| Timothy Castagne: 1+ assists | 4% |
| Brenden Aaronson: 1+ goals | 4% |
| Maxim De Cuyper: 4+ shots | 4% |
| Brenden Aaronson: 2+ goals + assists | 4% |
| Hans Vanaken: 2+ goals + assists | 4% |
| Haji Wright: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Leandro Trossard: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Christian Pulisic: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Folarin Balogun: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Leandro Trossard: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Brandon Mechele: 1+ assists | 3% |
| Youri Tielemans: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Timothy Castagne: 1+ goals + assists | 3% |
| Gio Reyna: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Matias Fernandez-Pardo: 1+ goals | 3% |
| Antonee Robinson: 3+ shots | 3% |
| Hans Vanaken: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 2+ assists | 2% |
| Brenden Aaronson: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Brenden Aaronson: 3+ goals | 2% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Gio Reyna: 3+ goals | 2% |
| Hans Vanaken: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Jeremy Doku: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Matias Fernandez-Pardo: 3+ goals | 2% |
| Christian Pulisic: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Folarin Balogun: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Haji Wright: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Leandro Trossard: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Weston McKennie: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Weston McKennie: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Youri Tielemans: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Malik Tillman: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Malik Tillman: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Matias Fernandez-Pardo: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Sergiño Dest: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Jeremy Doku: 3+ goals | 1% |
Market context
United States vs. Belgium - Player Props — current market-implied probability: 90%. Player prop markets for the FIFA World Cup game between United States and Belgium, scheduled for July 6 at 8:00 PM ET.
Methodology
This page tracks United States vs. Belgium - Player Props across four political prediction venues. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book (the deepest political prediction-market book). Kalshi is the CFTC-regulated US alternative, Betfair the established UK sports-exchange with politics markets, Manifold the open play-money variant. For users geo-blocked from Polymarket directly, brokers like Trump Prediction provide a 0%-fee route into the same order book.
Resolution & payout
Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.
Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.
FAQ
- How accurate are political prediction markets?
- Historically more accurate than polls. Polymarket's Brier score on US 2024 elections was ~0.11 — better than 538 (~0.14) and every mainstream poll. Markets aggregate information with real skin in the game.
- What resolution source is used for elections?
- Polymarket defines the source per contract — usually Associated Press (AP Race Call), Reuters or the official electoral commission. The source is stated in contract details before the market opens.
- How fast do political markets react to news?
- High-liquidity markets move within seconds to minutes. A Trump tweet on the economy can shift the "Trump 2024" market 2-5 points before mainstream media has written anything.
- Are political prediction markets legal in my country?
- It varies. They sit in legal gray areas in most jurisdictions. Polymarket is geo-blocked from US/UK/EU; some broker frontends have a different geo footprint. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose, and only if you understand the legal status in your jurisdiction.
- Why do Polymarket and Kalshi differ on elections?
- Kalshi must follow CFTC compliance — strict definitions, clear resolution sources, US citizens only with KYC. Polymarket operates globally without CFTC oversight — deeper liquidity, but also higher regulatory risk.
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