IF Elfsborg vs. IK Sirius

Platform comparison

Market context

An Allsvenskan match between IF Elfsborg and IK Sirius took place at Borås Arena on Sunday, 19 July 2026, with the game concluding before the settlement window closed. The 0% YES probability reflects the event’s completion, as prediction markets on settled sports outcomes typically close to trading once the result is confirmed.

Historically, similar football markets on prediction platforms show near-zero probability for “YES” outcomes once matches are finished, regardless of pre-game odds or crowd sentiment. For instance, in the 2024 Allsvenskan season, markets on completed fixtures like Elfsborg vs Malmö FF settled at 0% or 100% within hours of the final whistle, with no late poll movements or declarations altering the outcome.

No active catalysts remain for traders to watch, as the match has already occurred and no scheduled debates, campaign-finance disclosures, or convention announcements relate to this fixture. The market leans entirely on the final result of the game, which is now a fixed historical fact. ESPN reported Elfsborg’s record as 4–6–3 and Sirius as 10–2–0 prior to kickoff, but these figures no longer influence the settlement [1]. Sky Sports confirmed the 3:30pm local start time, now superseded by the final score [2].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4

Methodology

Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for IF Elfsborg vs. IK Sirius plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.

Resolution & payout

Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.

FAQ

How accurate are political prediction markets?

Historically more accurate than polls. Polymarket's Brier score on US 2024 elections was ~0.11 — better than 538 (~0.14) and every mainstream poll. Markets aggregate information with real skin in the game.

How fast do political markets react to news?

High-liquidity markets move within seconds to minutes. A Trump tweet on the economy can shift the "Trump 2024" market 2-5 points before mainstream media has written anything.

Are political prediction markets legal in my country?

It varies. They sit in legal gray areas in most jurisdictions. Polymarket is geo-blocked from US/UK/EU; some broker frontends have a different geo footprint. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose, and only if you understand the legal status in your jurisdiction.

Why do Polymarket and Kalshi differ on elections?

Kalshi must follow CFTC compliance — strict definitions, clear resolution sources, US citizens only with KYC. Polymarket operates globally without CFTC oversight — deeper liquidity, but also higher regulatory risk.

Which political events have the biggest volume?

US Presidential election, party nominations (DNC/RNC), Senate majorities, individual state outcomes (Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin), and major European elections. Peak markets reach $50-500M per event.