UFC Fight Night: Bruno Silva vs. Édgar Cháirez (Flyweight, Prelims)

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Bruno Silva, a Brazilian flyweight, faces Édgar Cháirez in a preliminary bout at UFC Fight Night: Muhammad vs. Bonfim on 6 June 2026. The market currently shows zero implied probability for Silva's victory, suggesting either minimal trading activity or strong consensus backing Cháirez. Settlement depends on official UFC declaration of a winner; draws, no contests, or cancellations beyond 20 June trigger a 50-50 resolution.

Silva's record and recent form provide the baseline for assessing this matchup. Preliminary bouts at Fight Night cards typically feature fighters outside the main draw, often with less established track records or coming off losses. The 0% probability reflects either sparse market liquidity on a lower-profile prelim or genuine confidence in Cháirez's superiority. Comparable preliminary fights at similar UFC events show volatile pricing when fighter information is limited, with late movement common as fight week approaches and additional details emerge.

The critical catalyst remains official fighter confirmation and any last-minute changes to the card. UFC Fight Night events occasionally see preliminary bouts shuffled or cancelled due to injury or weight-cut issues. Traders should monitor UFC's official announcements through early June for any roster adjustments. The settlement window closes shortly after the event concludes, leaving minimal time for disputes. Any technical issues—such as a fighter missing weight or a sudden withdrawal—would shift this market substantially, potentially triggering the 50-50 resolution clause if the bout fails to occur as scheduled.

Methodology

This page tracks UFC Fight Night: Bruno Silva vs. Édgar Cháirez (Flyweight, Prelims) across four political prediction venues. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book (the deepest political prediction-market book). Kalshi is the CFTC-regulated US alternative, Betfair the established UK sports-exchange with politics markets, Manifold the open play-money variant. Trump Prediction routes every trade through to Polymarket — at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Trump Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Trump Prediction is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Trump Prediction triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.