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LoL: G2 Esports vs LYON (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Playoffs

How the prediction markets are pricing "LoL: G2 Esports vs LYON (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Playoffs" right now — live Polymarket order book quote, plus platform comparison.

Match Winner 78% Game 1 Winner 68% Game 2 Winner 67% Game 3 Winner 67% Volume: $112K Liquidity: $561K Closes: 10 Jul 2026
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LoL: G2 Esports vs LYON (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Playoffs

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via Trump Prediction) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
 78% 22% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle Live odds →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
 78% 22% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain Live odds →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
 — — Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD Live odds →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
 — — 2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR Live odds →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
 — — Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) Live odds →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
Match Winner78%
Game 1 Winner68%
Game 2 Winner67%
Game 3 Winner67%
O/U 3.5 Games67%
Game Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs LYON (+1.5)62%
Game 4 Winner60%
Any Player Penta Kill52%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon51%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon51%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor51%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors51%
Any Player Quadra Kill51%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor51%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors51%
Any Player Quadra Kill51%
Odd/Even Total Kills51%
Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 4?51%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor50%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon50%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors50%
Odd/Even Total Kills50%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor50%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors50%
Odd/Even Total Kills50%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor50%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors50%
Any Player Penta Kill50%
Odd/Even Total Kills50%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon50%
First Blood in Game 4?50%
First Blood in Game 3?50%
First Blood in Game 2?50%
First Blood in Game 1?50%
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 3?50%
Any Player Quadra Kill49%
Any Player Quadra Kill49%
Any Player Quadra Kill49%
Odd/Even Total Kills49%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon49%
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 4?49%
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 2?49%
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 1?48%
Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 2?37%
Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 1?37%
Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 3?37%
Game Handicap: G2 (-2.5) vs LYON (+2.5)32%
O/U 4.5 Games31%
Any Player Penta Kill27%
Any Player Penta Kill27%
Any Player Penta Kill27%

Market context

Live Polymarket data shows 78% YES probability for LoL: G2 Esports vs LYON (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Playoffs. This market refers to the LoL Lower bracket semifinal match between G2 Esports and LYON in the Mid-Season Invitational Playoffs, initially scheduled for July 10 at 4:00AM ET. This market will resolve…

Methodology

This page tracks LoL: G2 Esports vs LYON (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Playoffs across four political prediction venues. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book (the deepest political prediction-market book). Kalshi is the CFTC-regulated US alternative, Betfair the established UK sports-exchange with politics markets, Manifold the open play-money variant. For users geo-blocked from Polymarket directly, brokers like Trump Prediction provide a 0%-fee route into the same order book.

Resolution & payout

Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.

FAQ

What resolution source is used for elections?
Polymarket defines the source per contract — usually Associated Press (AP Race Call), Reuters or the official electoral commission. The source is stated in contract details before the market opens.
Which platform has the deepest political liquidity?
Polymarket — by far. US 2024 presidential volume was ~$3.5B vs Kalshi (~$200M) and Betfair (~$120M). Where Polymarket is geo-blocked, brokers like Trump Prediction route into the same order book at 0% fees.
How fast do political markets react to news?
High-liquidity markets move within seconds to minutes. A Trump tweet on the economy can shift the "Trump 2024" market 2-5 points before mainstream media has written anything.
Are political prediction markets legal in my country?
It varies. They sit in legal gray areas in most jurisdictions. Polymarket is geo-blocked from US/UK/EU; some broker frontends have a different geo footprint. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose, and only if you understand the legal status in your jurisdiction.
Which political events have the biggest volume?
US Presidential election, party nominations (DNC/RNC), Senate majorities, individual state outcomes (Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin), and major European elections. Peak markets reach $50-500M per event.
Sarah MitchellSarah MitchellPolitical Markets WriterandJames WilliamsJames WilliamsPrediction Market Analyst

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