How accurate are political prediction markets?

Historically more accurate than polls. Polymarket's Brier score on US 2024 elections was ~0.11 — better than 538 (~0.14) and every mainstream poll. Markets aggregate information with real skin in the game.

What resolution source is used for elections?

Polymarket defines the source per contract — usually Associated Press (AP Race Call), Reuters or the official electoral commission. The source is stated in contract details before the market opens.

Can prediction markets influence election outcomes?

Markets reflect expectations rather than create them. Studies show public-facing markets can anchor expectations, but don't influence the underlying outcome. Political markets are information, not advocacy.

How fast do political markets react to news?

High-liquidity markets move within seconds to minutes. A Trump tweet on the economy can shift the "Trump 2024" market 2-5 points before mainstream media has written anything.

Are political prediction markets legal in my country?

It varies. They sit in legal gray areas in most jurisdictions. Polymarket is geo-blocked from US/UK/EU; some broker frontends have a different geo footprint. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose, and only if you understand the legal status in your jurisdiction.

85% Yes — Minnesota Twins vs. New York Yankees

Name: Minnesota Twins vs. New York Yankees
Start: 2026-06-27T13:02:46.620Z
End: 2026-07-10T23:05:00.000Z

Platform comparison

Platform	YES odds	NO odds	Fee	KYC	Settlement
Polymarket (via Trump Prediction) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker)	85%	15%	0% (USDC on-chain)	No-KYC up to $1,500	USDC, auto via UMA oracle	Live odds →
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com	85%	15%	0%	Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU	USDC, on-chain	Live odds →
Kalshi kalshi.com	—	—	Up to 7% per trade	US-only, KYC required	USD	Live odds →
Betfair Exchange betfair.com	—	—	2-5% commission	Full KYC from first trade	GBP / EUR	Live odds →
Manifold Markets manifold.markets	—	—	Play-money (mana)	None — play-money	Mana (no cash-out)	Live odds →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

Outcome	Probability
1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5	85%
1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5	74%
1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5	62%
NRFI	55%
O/U 9.5	53%
Spread -1.5	51%
1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5	50%
O/U 10.5	45%
1st 5 Innings Spread -1.5	43%
1st 5 Innings O/U 6.5	39%
Minnesota Twins vs. New York Yankees	34%
1st 5 Innings Spread -2.5	31%
1st 5 Innings Spread -1.5	23%
1st 5 Innings Spread -2.5	12%
Extra Innings	7%

Market context

Minnesota Twins vs. New York Yankees — current market-implied probability: 85%. In the upcoming MLB game between the Minnesota Twins and New York Yankees, scheduled for July 3 at 7:05PM ET: This market will resolve to "Minnesota Twins" if the Minnesota Twins win the game. This …

Live Data & Statistics

The Polymarket order book prices 1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5 at 85% for "Minnesota Twins vs. New York Yankees".

1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5 85% Other 15%

Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $165K.

Methodology

Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for Minnesota Twins vs. New York Yankees plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.

Resolution & payout

For political markets the resolution source is decisive. Polymarket defines a concrete source per contract (e.g. AP, Reuters, official electoral commission) and uses the UMA Optimistic Oracle as the on-chain dispute mechanism. With a clearly defined outcome the USDC payout lands within minutes of the final confirmation.

FAQ

How accurate are political prediction markets?: Historically more accurate than polls. Polymarket's Brier score on US 2024 elections was ~0.11 — better than 538 (~0.14) and every mainstream poll. Markets aggregate information with real skin in the game.
What resolution source is used for elections?: Polymarket defines the source per contract — usually Associated Press (AP Race Call), Reuters or the official electoral commission. The source is stated in contract details before the market opens.
Can prediction markets influence election outcomes?: Markets reflect expectations rather than create them. Studies show public-facing markets can anchor expectations, but don't influence the underlying outcome. Political markets are information, not advocacy.
How fast do political markets react to news?: High-liquidity markets move within seconds to minutes. A Trump tweet on the economy can shift the "Trump 2024" market 2-5 points before mainstream media has written anything.
Are political prediction markets legal in my country?: It varies. They sit in legal gray areas in most jurisdictions. Polymarket is geo-blocked from US/UK/EU; some broker frontends have a different geo footprint. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose, and only if you understand the legal status in your jurisdiction.

Sarah MitchellPolitical Markets Writerand

James WilliamsPrediction Market Analyst

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Minnesota Twins vs. New York Yankees

Platform comparison

Outcome probabilities

Market context

Live Data & Statistics

Methodology

Resolution & payout

FAQ

Trade Minnesota Twins vs. New York Yankees on Trump Prediction

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