Market statistics
- Total volume
- $1.2M
- 24h volume
- $1.2M
- Liquidity
- $4.4M
- Open interest
- $700K
Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via PolyGram) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Available prediction outcomes (17)
Sorted by descending live probability. Click any outcome to trade it on PolyGram.
Market context
The St. Louis Cardinals face the Oakland Athletics in an MLB regular-season contest scheduled for 14 May at 3:05pm ET, with settlement occurring by 21 May 2026. The market currently reflects near-certainty in a Cardinals victory, with implied probability at 100%, suggesting substantial confidence in the favoured outcome based on available information at market open.
The Cardinals enter 2026 as a franchise with consistent playoff contention history, whilst the Athletics have undergone significant roster reconstruction following their relocation period. Historical matchups between these clubs show the Cardinals have maintained a competitive advantage in recent seasons. The 100% probability reading is notably extreme for a single-game sports market, where weather delays, injury announcements, or bullpen availability typically introduce meaningful uncertainty even for heavily favoured teams. Comparable MLB markets rarely settle at such certainty levels prior to game day.
Traders should monitor roster updates through to game time, particularly any late injury declarations affecting starting pitchers or key position players. Weather conditions at Busch Stadium on 14 May could influence game dynamics, whilst any unexpected lineup changes announced within hours of first pitch may shift expectations. Official MLB injury reports and team announcements via ESPN or MLB.com will provide the primary catalysts for probability adjustment. The settlement window extending to 21 May accounts for potential postponement, though the current probability suggests the market has already priced in an expectation of game completion on the scheduled date.
Wikipedia Context
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St. LouisSt. Louis is an independent city in the U.S. state of Missouri. It lies near the confluence of the Mississippi and the Missouri rivers. In 2020, the city proper had a population of 301,578, while its metropolitan area, which extends into Illinois, had an estimated population of over 2.8 million. It is the largest metropolitan area in Missouri and the second-
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St Louis (horse)St Louis was an Irish-bred, British-trained thoroughbred racehorse and sire. He finished unplaced on his only start as a juvenile but made rapid improvement over the winter and won the 2000 Guineas in April 1922. He finished fourth when favourite for the Epsom Derby and then won a minor race at Wolverhampton Racecourse but was withdrawn from the St Leger aft
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St Louis Grammar School, Ballymena
St Louis Grammar School is a school in Ballymena, Northern Ireland.
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St Louise's Comprehensive College
St. Louise's Comprehensive College is a comprehensive high school located in the Upper Falls Road, Belfast.
Methodology
This page tracks St. Louis Cardinals vs. Athletics across four political prediction venues. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book (the deepest political prediction-market book). Kalshi is the CFTC-regulated US alternative, Betfair the established UK sports-exchange with politics markets, Manifold the open play-money variant. For users geo-blocked from Polymarket directly, brokers like PolyGram provide a 0%-fee route into the same order book.
Resolution & payout
Resolution source: This market settles from the official publication at https://www.mlb.com/. A proposer submits the result to the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon, the two-hour challenge window opens, and the smart contract pays out in USDC.
For political markets the resolution source is decisive. Polymarket defines a concrete source per contract (e.g. AP, Reuters, official electoral commission) and uses the UMA Optimistic Oracle as the on-chain dispute mechanism. With a clearly defined outcome the USDC payout lands within minutes of the final confirmation.
FAQ
- What resolution source is used for elections?
- Polymarket defines the source per contract — usually Associated Press (AP Race Call), Reuters or the official electoral commission. The source is stated in contract details before the market opens.
- How fast do political markets react to news?
- High-liquidity markets move within seconds to minutes. A Trump tweet on the economy can shift the "Trump 2024" market 2-5 points before mainstream media has written anything.
- Are political prediction markets legal in my country?
- It varies. They sit in legal gray areas in most jurisdictions. Polymarket is geo-blocked from US/UK/EU; some broker frontends have a different geo footprint. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose, and only if you understand the legal status in your jurisdiction.
- Why do Polymarket and Kalshi differ on elections?
- Kalshi must follow CFTC compliance — strict definitions, clear resolution sources, US citizens only with KYC. Polymarket operates globally without CFTC oversight — deeper liquidity, but also higher regulatory risk.
- Which political events have the biggest volume?
- US Presidential election, party nominations (DNC/RNC), Senate majorities, individual state outcomes (Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin), and major European elections. Peak markets reach $50-500M per event.
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