Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Trump Prediction) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
93% | 7% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
93% | 7% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 24.5 | 93% |
| Chiefs O/U 10.5 | 92% |
| O/U 26.5 | 89% |
| Broncos O/U 10.5 | 88% |
| O/U 28.5 | 87% |
| O/U 30.5 | 85% |
| O/U 32.5 | 84% |
| Chiefs 1H O/U 6.5 | 83% |
| Broncos 1H O/U 6.5 | 81% |
| 4Q O/U 6.5 | 78% |
| Chiefs O/U 16.5 | 77% |
| Broncos O/U 14.5 | 77% |
| O/U 34.5 | 76% |
| 2Q O/U 6.5 | 75% |
| Broncos 1H O/U 7.5 | 73% |
| 4Q O/U 7.5 | 73% |
| Broncos O/U 16.5 | 73% |
| Chiefs O/U 12.5 | 73% |
| O/U 36.5 | 72% |
| 2Q O/U 7.5 | 72% |
| Broncos O/U 12.5 | 70% |
| Broncos O/U 13.5 | 70% |
| Chiefs O/U 13.5 | 69% |
| Chiefs O/U 17.5 | 69% |
| 2H Spread -0.5 | 68% |
| 2H O/U 14.5 | 67% |
| 2H O/U 16.5 | 67% |
| 2H O/U 17.5 | 66% |
| 2Q Spread -0.5 | 66% |
| 4Q Spread -0.5 | 66% |
| Chiefs O/U 19.5 | 66% |
| O/U 38.5 | 65% |
| 1H O/U 16.5 | 65% |
| Broncos O/U 17.5 | 64% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 2Q | 64% |
| 1Q O/U 6.5 | 64% |
| O/U 39.5 | 63% |
| 3Q O/U 6.5 | 63% |
| Broncos O/U 19.5 | 61% |
| O/U 40.5 | 60% |
| 1H O/U 19.5 | 59% |
| 2Q O/U 10.5 | 57% |
| O/U 41.5 | 56% |
| Spread -0.5 | 56% |
| 1Q O/U 4.5 | 56% |
| 3Q O/U 1.5 | 56% |
| 3Q O/U 4.5 | 56% |
| 1Q O/U 5.5 | 56% |
| 3Q O/U 5.5 | 56% |
| Chiefs O/U 20.5 | 56% |
| 2H O/U 20.5 | 55% |
| 1Q O/U 1.5 | 55% |
| Broncos 1H O/U 9.5 | 55% |
| O/U 42.5 | 54% |
| 2Q O/U 5.5 | 54% |
| Spread -1.5 | 53% |
| 4Q O/U 5.5 | 53% |
| Chiefs 1H O/U 12.5 | 53% |
| Broncos O/U 20.5 | 53% |
| 2H O/U 19.5 | 53% |
| 4Q O/U 4.5 | 53% |
| Chiefs 1H O/U 11.5 | 53% |
| 4Q O/U 8.5 | 52% |
| 4Q O/U 11.5 | 52% |
| Chiefs O/U 22.5 | 52% |
| 1H O/U 20.5 | 52% |
| 4Q O/U 10.5 | 52% |
| 2H Moneyline | 51% |
| 3Q Spread -0.5 | 51% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 51% |
| Chiefs 1H O/U 8.5 | 51% |
| Chiefs 2H O/U 12.5 | 51% |
| Broncos 2H O/U 7.5 | 51% |
| Broncos 2H O/U 11.5 | 51% |
| Exact Margin: Chiefs by 7-13 | 51% |
| Exact Margin: Chiefs by 14-20 | 51% |
| Broncos vs. Chiefs: Total Two-Point Conversions O/U 0.5 | 51% |
| 2H Spread -20.5 | 51% |
| 1Q Spread -14.5 | 51% |
| 1Q Spread -14.5 | 51% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 51% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 51% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 51% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 51% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 51% |
| 3Q Spread -13.5 | 51% |
| 3Q Spread -14.5 | 51% |
| 3Q Spread -13.5 | 51% |
| 3Q Spread -14.5 | 51% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 51% |
| 4Q Spread -13.5 | 51% |
| 4Q Spread -14.5 | 51% |
| 4Q Spread -13.5 | 51% |
| 4Q Spread -14.5 | 51% |
| 1Q Spread -5.5 | 51% |
| 1Q Spread -8.5 | 51% |
| 2Q Spread -5.5 | 51% |
| 4Q Spread -8.5 | 51% |
| Broncos 2H O/U 10.5 | 51% |
| Broncos 2H O/U 12.5 | 51% |
| Broncos 2H O/U 17.5 | 51% |
| Chiefs 2H O/U 16.5 | 51% |
| Chiefs 2H O/U 15.5 | 51% |
| Broncos 2H O/U 14.5 | 51% |
| Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| O/U 43.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 50% |
| Chiefs 2H O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| Chiefs 2H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Broncos 2H O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Chiefs by 21+ | 50% |
| Safety? | 50% |
| Broncos Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Chiefs Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| Broncos 2H O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Broncos 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Broncos 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Broncos 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Broncos 2H O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| Chiefs 2H O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Chiefs 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Chiefs 2H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Chiefs 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Chiefs 2H O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| Chiefs 1H O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| Chiefs 2H O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 7.5 | 49% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 48% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 4Q | 48% |
| Chiefs Total Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 48% |
| 2H O/U 22.5 | 48% |
| 4Q O/U 16.5 | 48% |
| 1Q O/U 7.5 | 47% |
| 1H O/U 21.5 | 47% |
| Broncos O/U 22.5 | 47% |
| O/U 44.5 | 46% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 46% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 46% |
| Broncos vs. Chiefs | 45% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 45% |
| 1H Moneyline | 45% |
| Chiefs O/U 23.5 | 45% |
| 1H O/U 22.5 | 44% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 44% |
| 2Q O/U 19.5 | 44% |
| Chiefs 1H O/U 10.5 | 44% |
| 4Q O/U 13.5 | 44% |
| O/U 45.5 | 43% |
| 2H O/U 23.5 | 43% |
| Spread -1.5 | 43% |
| Spread -2.5 | 43% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 42% |
| 1Q Spread -0.5 | 42% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 42% |
| 2Q Spread -1.5 | 42% |
| Broncos Total Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 42% |
| Spread -3.5 | 40% |
| 1Q Spread -1.5 | 40% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 40% |
| Broncos O/U 23.5 | 40% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 1Q | 40% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 3Q | 40% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 40% |
| Chiefs 1H O/U 17.5 | 40% |
| O/U 46.5 | 39% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 39% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 39% |
| 2H O/U 25.5 | 39% |
| Spread -4.5 | 38% |
| 2H O/U 26.5 | 38% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 38% |
| 1H O/U 25.5 | 38% |
| Broncos 1H O/U 12.5 | 38% |
| O/U 47.5 | 37% |
| 2Q O/U 13.5 | 37% |
| 3Q Spread -1.5 | 37% |
| Broncos 1H O/U 11.5 | 37% |
| Chiefs O/U 25.5 | 37% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 36% |
| Spread -5.5 | 36% |
| O/U 48.5 | 35% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 35% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 35% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 35% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 34% |
| Team to Record Longest FG | 34% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 34% |
| Broncos 1H O/U 10.5 | 34% |
| Spread -3.5 | 33% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 33% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 33% |
| Chiefs O/U 26.5 | 33% |
| Spread -6.5 | 32% |
| Broncos O/U 25.5 | 32% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 31% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 31% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 31% |
| O/U 50.5 | 30% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 30% |
| Spread -4.5 | 30% |
| Spread -7.5 | 30% |
| 2Q O/U 14.5 | 30% |
| 3Q O/U 10.5 | 29% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 29% |
| Chiefs O/U 30.5 | 29% |
| Broncos O/U 26.5 | 28% |
| Spread -5.5 | 28% |
| Broncos O/U 30.5 | 28% |
| Chiefs 1H O/U 13.5 | 28% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 27% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 27% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 27% |
| 4Q O/U 14.5 | 27% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 27% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 27% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 27% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 27% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 26% |
| Spread -6.5 | 26% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 26% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 26% |
| Broncos O/U 34.5 | 26% |
| Chiefs O/U 27.5 | 26% |
| 1Q O/U 10.5 | 25% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 25% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 25% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 25% |
| Chiefs O/U 34.5 | 25% |
| Broncos 1H O/U 13.5 | 25% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 24% |
| Chiefs O/U 28.5 | 24% |
| Spread -8.5 | 24% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 24% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 24% |
| 4Q Spread -5.5 | 24% |
| O/U 52.5 | 23% |
| Spread -9.5 | 23% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 23% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 23% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 23% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 23% |
| 2H O/U 28.5 | 23% |
| Broncos O/U 27.5 | 23% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 22% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 22% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 22% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 22% |
| 3Q Spread -5.5 | 22% |
| Chiefs 1H O/U 16.5 | 22% |
| Chiefs O/U 29.5 | 22% |
| Exact Margin: Chiefs by 1-6 | 21% |
| Spread -7.5 | 21% |
| Spread -10.5 | 21% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 21% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 21% |
| Broncos 1H O/U 14.5 | 21% |
| O/U 54.5 | 20% |
| 1Q O/U 13.5 | 20% |
| Exact Margin: Broncos by 1-6 | 20% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 20% |
| 1H O/U 28.5 | 20% |
| 3Q O/U 13.5 | 19% |
| Spread -8.5 | 19% |
| Spread -9.5 | 19% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 19% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 19% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 19% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 19% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 18% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 18% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 18% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 18% |
| Spread -20.5 | 17% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 17% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 17% |
| O/U 56.5 | 16% |
| 4Q O/U 17.5 | 16% |
| Spread -13.5 | 16% |
| Spread -21.5 | 15% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 15% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 15% |
| Broncos 1H O/U 17.5 | 15% |
| Exact Margin: Broncos by 7-12 | 14% |
| Spread -10.5 | 14% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 14% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 14% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 14% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 14% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 14% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 14% |
| 4Q Spread -10.5 | 14% |
| Broncos 1H O/U 16.5 | 14% |
| Spread -13.5 | 13% |
| Spread -14.5 | 13% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 13% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 13% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 13% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 13% |
| 2Q Spread -8.5 | 13% |
| O/U 58.5 | 12% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 12% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 12% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 12% |
| 3Q Spread -8.5 | 12% |
| O/U 60.5 | 11% |
| Spread -16.5 | 11% |
| 3Q O/U 14.5 | 11% |
| Exact Margin: Broncos by 25+ | 10% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 10% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 10% |
| Broncos 1H O/U 20.5 | 10% |
| Chiefs 1H O/U 19.5 | 10% |
| Exact Margin: Broncos by 13-18 | 9% |
| Spread -17.5 | 9% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 9% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 9% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 9% |
| 1Q O/U 14.5 | 9% |
| O/U 62.5 | 8% |
| Spread -14.5 | 8% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 8% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 8% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 8% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 8% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 8% |
| Broncos 1H O/U 19.5 | 8% |
| Chiefs 1H O/U 20.5 | 8% |
| Spread -19.5 | 7% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 7% |
| O/U 64.5 | 7% |
| Exact Margin: Broncos by 19-24 | 6% |
| Spread -16.5 | 6% |
| Spread -17.5 | 6% |
| Spread -20.5 | 6% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 6% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 6% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 6% |
| 4Q Spread -10.5 | 6% |
| 3Q Spread -10.5 | 5% |
| Spread -19.5 | 4% |
| Spread -21.5 | 4% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 4% |
| 3Q Spread -10.5 | 4% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 3% |
| Exact Margin: Tie | 2% |
Market context
Based on real-money crowd forecasting, broncos vs. chiefs stands at 93% likelihood according to current market consensus. In the upcoming NFL game, scheduled for September 14 at 8:15PM ET: If Broncos wins, the market will resolve to "Broncos". If Chiefs wins, the market will resolve to "Chiefs". If th…
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $621K.
Methodology
Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for Broncos vs. Chiefs plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.
Resolution & payout
For political markets the resolution source is decisive. Polymarket defines a concrete source per contract (e.g. AP, Reuters, official electoral commission) and uses the UMA Optimistic Oracle as the on-chain dispute mechanism. With a clearly defined outcome the USDC payout lands within minutes of the final confirmation.
UK Frequently Asked Questions
- What resolution source is used for elections?
- Polymarket defines the source per contract — usually Associated Press (AP Race Call), Reuters or the official electoral commission. The source is stated in contract details before the market opens.
- Can prediction markets influence election outcomes?
- Markets reflect expectations rather than create them. Studies show public-facing markets can anchor expectations, but don't influence the underlying outcome. Political markets are information, not advocacy.
- How fast do political markets react to news?
- High-liquidity markets move within seconds to minutes. A Trump tweet on the economy can shift the "Trump 2024" market 2-5 points before mainstream media has written anything.
- Are political prediction markets legal in my country?
- It varies. They sit in legal gray areas in most jurisdictions. Polymarket is geo-blocked from US/UK/EU; some broker frontends have a different geo footprint. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose, and only if you understand the legal status in your jurisdiction.
- Are UK election prediction markets available from the UK?
- Yes. Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer UKGC-regulated UK election markets (seat counts, party share, constituency results). Polymarket also lists UK election contracts with deeper global liquidity. Betfair winnings are typically tax-free for UK individuals; Polymarket profits are subject to HMRC CGT.
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