Market statistics
- Total volume
- $1.6M
- 24h volume
- $1.6M
- Open interest
- $1.2M
Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via PolyGram) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Available prediction outcomes (7)
Sorted by descending live probability. Click any outcome to trade it on PolyGram.
Market context
The Vegas Golden Knights face the Anaheim Ducks in an NHL matchup scheduled for 14 May at 9:30PM ET, with settlement occurring the following morning. The market currently reflects 100% implied probability for resolution, suggesting traders anticipate the game will proceed as scheduled without postponement or cancellation.
The current pricing reflects the standard operational reliability of NHL fixtures during the regular season and playoffs. Historical data shows that games scheduled during May proceed without disruption in the vast majority of cases, with cancellations or postponements typically occurring only in exceptional circumstances such as severe weather affecting travel or facility access. The 50-50 contingency clause for full cancellation has minimal historical precedent in modern NHL scheduling, making it an unlikely settlement outcome.
Traders should monitor standard pre-game factors including roster availability, injury reports released in the 24 hours before fixture time, and any weather alerts affecting travel to the venue. The Golden Knights and Ducks typically release updated lineup information on game day morning. The settlement window closes at 01:30 UTC on 15 May, providing a narrow window for the match to conclude. Any announcement of postponement would typically come from the NHL's official channels or team communications, though such disruptions remain statistically uncommon for scheduled May fixtures.
Wikipedia Context
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Golden Knights (chess)
The Golden Knights is the United States open correspondence chess championship. It is held annually by the United States Chess Federation (USCF), and is open to all members of the USCF residing in the United States or who have an APO or FPO address. It was first held in 1943 under the name Victory Tournament, the next year it was called the Postal Chess Cham
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Knights PlazaKnights Plaza at University of Central Florida, commonly referred to as Knights Plaza, is an athletic village and shopping center on the main campus of the University of Central Florida in Orlando, Florida, United States. The plaza consists of housing for more than 2,000 students in four towers, 183,000 square feet (17,000 m2) of commercial space, the 10,000
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Golden nightjarThe golden nightjar is a species of nightjar in the family Caprimulgidae. It is found in Sahel region in northern Sub-Saharan Africa.
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Golden Knight GaroGolden Knight Garo is a PlayStation 2 video game based on the tokusatsu TV show Garo. It was published by Bandai and released in Japan on April 20, 2006.
Methodology
Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for Golden Knights vs. Ducks plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.
Resolution & payout
Resolution source: This market settles from the official publication at https://www.nhl.com/scores. A proposer submits the result to the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon, the two-hour challenge window opens, and the smart contract pays out in USDC.
For political markets the resolution source is decisive. Polymarket defines a concrete source per contract (e.g. AP, Reuters, official electoral commission) and uses the UMA Optimistic Oracle as the on-chain dispute mechanism. With a clearly defined outcome the USDC payout lands within minutes of the final confirmation.
FAQ
- How accurate are political prediction markets?
- Historically more accurate than polls. Polymarket's Brier score on US 2024 elections was ~0.11 — better than 538 (~0.14) and every mainstream poll. Markets aggregate information with real skin in the game.
- Can prediction markets influence election outcomes?
- Markets reflect expectations rather than create them. Studies show public-facing markets can anchor expectations, but don't influence the underlying outcome. Political markets are information, not advocacy.
- Which platform has the deepest political liquidity?
- Polymarket — by far. US 2024 presidential volume was ~$3.5B vs Kalshi (~$200M) and Betfair (~$120M). Where Polymarket is geo-blocked, brokers like PolyGram route into the same order book at 0% fees.
- How fast do political markets react to news?
- High-liquidity markets move within seconds to minutes. A Trump tweet on the economy can shift the "Trump 2024" market 2-5 points before mainstream media has written anything.
- Are political prediction markets legal in my country?
- It varies. They sit in legal gray areas in most jurisdictions. Polymarket is geo-blocked from US/UK/EU; some broker frontends have a different geo footprint. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose, and only if you understand the legal status in your jurisdiction.
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