England vs. Costa Rica

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

England will face Costa Rica in a FIFA International Friendly on 10 June 2026, with the match settling at 20:00 UTC. The 11% implied probability reflects a strong favouring of England, consistent with their FIFA ranking (currently 4th) and Costa Rica's position (31st). England have won 5 of their last 6 matches against Central American opposition in friendlies, with only a 2–2 draw against Jamaica in 2022 breaking the pattern. Costa Rica's record in comparable fixtures shows two wins in their last eight friendlies against top-20 ranked nations, suggesting the crowd assessment aligns with historical performance gaps.

The settlement window closes on match day itself, leaving no room for postponement or rescheduling to alter the outcome probability. Traders should monitor team news releases from the Football Association and Costa Rica's football federation in the week preceding the fixture, particularly regarding injury status for England's key attacking players. Squad rotation decisions often shift friendly-match dynamics; England frequently use such matches to test fringe players or manage workload for established starters. The 2026 World Cup cycle context—with both nations preparing for qualification or tournament play—will influence selection intensity. Recent friendly results from both camps in May 2026 will provide the most direct signal of form and tactical direction heading into this fixture.

Methodology

This page tracks England vs. Costa Rica across four political prediction venues. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book (the deepest political prediction-market book). Kalshi is the CFTC-regulated US alternative, Betfair the established UK sports-exchange with politics markets, Manifold the open play-money variant. Trump Prediction routes every trade through to Polymarket — at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Trump Prediction is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Trump Prediction?

Zero. Trump Prediction routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.