IR Iran vs. New Zealand - Exact Score

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Iran and New Zealand will meet in the group stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup on 15 June at 9:00 PM ET. The market prices an exact-score outcome at 11% probability, reflecting the difficulty of predicting precise final tallies in international football. Exact-score markets typically settle on one of perhaps 15–20 plausible outcomes; the remaining probability mass distributes across "Any Other Score" and the listed alternatives.

Historical precedent suggests exact scores in World Cup matches cluster around low-scoring results. In the 2022 tournament, roughly 60% of group-stage matches finished 0–0, 1–0, 1–1, or 2–1. Iran's recent form is relevant: they qualified for 2026 after finishing second in AFC qualifying, averaging 1.2 goals per match in their final qualifying campaign. New Zealand, having secured a playoff spot, typically operates defensively in group stages. The 11% implied probability aligns with markets pricing a single exact outcome at roughly 5–7% when distributed across 15–20 realistic scorelines.

Traders should monitor team sheets and injury reports released in the week before the match, as absences of key attacking players would shift probability towards lower-scoring outcomes. Fixture congestion in the days preceding the match—particularly if either side plays a demanding knockout tie beforehand—could affect squad rotation and tactical setup. Recent FIFA rankings place Iran at 20th and New Zealand at 101st, a gap that typically favours the higher-ranked side but does not determine group-stage scorelines reliably. Pre-tournament friendlies in May 2026 will provide the most recent form data for adjusting positions.

Methodology

This page tracks IR Iran vs. New Zealand - Exact Score across four political prediction venues. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book (the deepest political prediction-market book). Kalshi is the CFTC-regulated US alternative, Betfair the established UK sports-exchange with politics markets, Manifold the open play-money variant. Trump Prediction routes every trade through to Polymarket — at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Trump Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What does it cost to trade on Trump Prediction?

Zero. Trump Prediction routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Trump Prediction triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.