Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde - Exact Score

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Uruguay’s World Cup meeting with Cabo Verde at Hard Rock Stadium is a straight regulation-time score market, so the key question is not who advances but whether the match lands on a specific full-time scoreline after 90 minutes plus stoppage time. The current 6% crowd-implied price for **YES** is consistent with a football exact-score market that is usually fragmented across many outcomes, especially when one side is expected to control possession and the other to keep the game tight. FIFA lists the match for Miami at 22:00, and ticket listings show this as a high-profile tournament fixture rather than a niche meeting, which tends to keep attention on the most common low-score results rather than any single precise outcome.[3][7]

Comparable exact-score markets usually trade below the wider match-winner probabilities because several results can be plausible at once, and the “Any Other Score” bucket absorbs the long tail of uncommon combinations. AiScore’s head-to-head page does not offer much historical depth for this pairing, which is itself a useful clue: with little prior direct evidence, traders typically lean more on team strength, tournament context, and the likelihood of a conservative opener than on match-up history.[1] In that setting, a low-single-digit probability for one exact score is unsurprising, because even a narrow Uruguay edge can be delivered by many different scorelines.

The catalyst to watch is the pre-match information set rather than any campaign-style event: FIFA line-ups, late injury or suspension news, and any official team declaration that changes expected starting shapes. FIFA’s live match centre is the cleanest source for confirmed line-ups and timing, while preview outlets such as WhoScored typically flag injuries, suspensions, probable XIs, and model-based predictions shortly before kick-off.[3][5] For this market, the main lean is on team-news drift: if Uruguay are confirmed close to full strength, the market usually shifts towards shorter-score outcomes; if Cabo Verde’s defensive set-up looks more resilient than expected, the price can migrate towards draw or one-goal patterns rather than a broad range of speculative exact scores.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page tracks Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde - Exact Score across four political prediction venues. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book (the deepest political prediction-market book). Kalshi is the CFTC-regulated US alternative, Betfair the established UK sports-exchange with politics markets, Manifold the open play-money variant. Trump Prediction routes every trade through to Polymarket — at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

For political markets the resolution source is decisive. Polymarket defines a concrete source per contract (e.g. AP, Reuters, official electoral commission) and uses the UMA Optimistic Oracle as the on-chain dispute mechanism. With a clearly defined outcome the USDC payout lands within minutes of the final confirmation.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Trump Prediction triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.