Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Trump Prediction) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
71% | 29% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
71% | 29% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Phoenix Mercury vs. Connecticut Sun | 71% |
| O/U 172.5 | 56% |
| Spread -5.5 | 55% |
| O/U 174.5 | 51% |
| Spread -6.5 | 49% |
| Kelsey Plum: Points O/U 17.5 | 47% |
| Leïla Lacan: Assists O/U 4.5 | 35% |
| Leïla Lacan: Points O/U 12.5 | 34% |
| Diamond Miller: Rebounds O/U 2.5 | 33% |
| Kelsey Plum: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 32% |
| Kahleah Copper: Assists O/U 1.5 | 32% |
| Diamond Miller: Points O/U 11.5 | 31% |
| DeWanna Bonner: Points O/U 10.5 | 30% |
| DeWanna Bonner: Rebounds O/U 6.5 | 30% |
| Kahleah Copper: Points O/U 20.5 | 28% |
| Kelsey Plum: Assists O/U 4.5 | 28% |
| Alyssa Thomas: Points O/U 15.5 | 26% |
| Kelsey Plum: Points O/U 18.5 | 26% |
| Alyssa Thomas: Assists O/U 8.5 | 25% |
| Leïla Lacan: Rebounds O/U 2.5 | 23% |
| Kahleah Copper: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 22% |
| Alyssa Thomas: Rebounds O/U 8.5 | 20% |
Market context
Live Polymarket data shows 71% YES probability for Phoenix Mercury vs. Connecticut Sun. In the upcoming WNBA game, scheduled for August 7 at 7:30PM ET: If the Phoenix Mercury win, the market will resolve to "Phoenix Mercury". If the Connecticut Sun win, the market will resolve to "Connec…
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $96K.
Methodology
Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for Phoenix Mercury vs. Connecticut Sun plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.
Resolution & payout
Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.
Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.
UK Frequently Asked Questions
- What resolution source is used for elections?
- Polymarket defines the source per contract — usually Associated Press (AP Race Call), Reuters or the official electoral commission. The source is stated in contract details before the market opens.
- Can prediction markets influence election outcomes?
- Markets reflect expectations rather than create them. Studies show public-facing markets can anchor expectations, but don't influence the underlying outcome. Political markets are information, not advocacy.
- How fast do political markets react to news?
- High-liquidity markets move within seconds to minutes. A Trump tweet on the economy can shift the "Trump 2024" market 2-5 points before mainstream media has written anything.
- Why do Polymarket and Kalshi differ on elections?
- Kalshi must follow CFTC compliance — strict definitions, clear resolution sources, US citizens only with KYC. Polymarket operates globally without CFTC oversight — deeper liquidity, but also higher regulatory risk.
- Are UK election prediction markets available from the UK?
- Yes. Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer UKGC-regulated UK election markets (seat counts, party share, constituency results). Polymarket also lists UK election contracts with deeper global liquidity. Betfair winnings are typically tax-free for UK individuals; Polymarket profits are subject to HMRC CGT.
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