World Cup: Number of Missed Penalties

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The 2026 FIFA World Cup can still produce a meaningful number of missed or saved penalties in normal play, but the current 4% YES price implies the crowd is leaning strongly towards a low total. That fits the historical pattern: at the tournament level, penalties taken in open play are relatively rare, and even the biggest individual World Cup penalty samples remain small. Guinness World Records notes that the most penalties missed by a single player at a World Cup, excluding shoot-outs, is two, a mark shared by Asamoah Gyan and Lionel Messi[2]. BEIN Sports also highlighted that Harry Kane and Messi have accumulated only a handful of World Cup penalties between them, which underlines how limited the event sample is[1].

For traders, the main catalyst is not a polling cycle but the match schedule and which teams reach the latter knockout rounds, where cautious defending and high-stakes fouls can increase spot-kick volume. FIFA’s rules mean only penalties in regular time, stoppage time, and extra time count, while shootout attempts are excluded, so the market depends on in-match awards rather than elimination tiebreaks[8]. Recent coverage from Opta Analyst on World Cup shoot-outs shows how narrow conversion margins can be in high-pressure penalty sequences, but those shootout kicks do not affect this market[7]. The key watchpoints are referee appointments, knockout fixtures, and any VAR-heavy matches that could lift the number of awarded penalties before the settlement window closes[8].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for World Cup: Number of Missed Penalties plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.

Resolution & payout

Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.

FAQ

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A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

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How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.