Makarska: Katarzyna Kawa vs Maya Joint

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Active sub-markets

Market context

A tennis match between Katarzyna Kawa and Maya Joint is scheduled for Makarska on 3 June 2026, with settlement contingent on completion by 10 June. The 0% implied probability suggests either extreme confidence in one player's withdrawal or a data-entry anomaly, as professional tennis matches between ranked competitors rarely settle at such extremes absent injury announcements or tournament cancellations.

Kawa, a Polish player with WTA ranking history, has competed across ITF and lower-tier professional circuits in recent seasons. Joint's competitive record remains less documented in major databases, making direct head-to-head comparison difficult. Historical precedent from Makarska tournaments—a Tier 3 event on the women's calendar—shows completion rates above 90%, with most withdrawals occurring more than a week before scheduled play. The settlement window's seven-day grace period accounts for typical rescheduling practices on the secondary tour circuit.

Traders should monitor official WTA and ITF announcements regarding player entry lists and injury status through early June. Makarska's scheduling typically occurs in May, with final confirmations published by tournament organisers roughly two weeks prior. Weather disruptions along the Croatian coast occasionally force single-day delays but rarely extend beyond the settlement window. The current probability assignment warrants verification against recent tournament draws and player availability statements, as such extreme odds often reflect incomplete market information rather than genuine predictive consensus.

Methodology

This page tracks Makarska: Katarzyna Kawa vs Maya Joint across four political prediction venues. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book (the deepest political prediction-market book). Kalshi is the CFTC-regulated US alternative, Betfair the established UK sports-exchange with politics markets, Manifold the open play-money variant. Trump Prediction routes every trade through to Polymarket — at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

For political markets the resolution source is decisive. Polymarket defines a concrete source per contract (e.g. AP, Reuters, official electoral commission) and uses the UMA Optimistic Oracle as the on-chain dispute mechanism. With a clearly defined outcome the USDC payout lands within minutes of the final confirmation.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Trump Prediction is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Trump Prediction triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.