Claude Mythos released by…?

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Market context

Anthropic confirmed on 26 March 2026 that its unreleased "Claude Mythos" model had been exposed through a data leak, with the company acknowledging the model represents a significant capability step forward in coding, reasoning, and cybersecurity applications. The leak forced early disclosure of what was intended as a controlled release, and Anthropic has since moved the model into early access testing rather than shelving it entirely. The core question for this market is whether Anthropic will formally release Claude Mythos or an equivalent model bearing that name before the settlement deadline on 30 April 2026.

Historical precedent suggests forced disclosures of unreleased AI models typically accelerate rather than delay public availability. When OpenAI's GPT-3 was widely discussed before official launch in 2020, the company released it within months. Similarly, leaked details of Anthropic's own Claude 2 in early 2023 preceded its public release by weeks. The 0% crowd probability appears to discount the likelihood of a formal release within five weeks, despite the model already being in early access and the company having already absorbed the reputational cost of the leak.

Traders should monitor Anthropic's official announcements and blog posts for release timing, as the company typically provides advance notice of model availability. The settlement window is narrow—just over a month from the leak—which means any release would need to be imminent or already scheduled. Early access programmes often transition to general availability quickly once initial testing concludes, particularly when a model has already been publicly named and its capabilities described. Watch for statements from Anthropic leadership regarding release schedules or availability expansion.

Methodology

Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for Claude Mythos released by…? plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.

Resolution & payout

Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.

FAQ

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On Trump Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

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What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

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Zero. Trump Prediction routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

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