Roland Garros ATP: Adam Walton vs Daniil Medvedev

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Adam Walton, a British professional tennis player ranked outside the top 200, faces Daniil Medvedev, the world number four and a two-time Grand Slam finalist, in the first or early round of Roland Garros in May 2026. Medvedev has won 16 ATP titles and reached multiple major semi-finals; Walton has never competed in a Grand Slam main draw. The 13% implied probability for Walton reflects the extreme disparity in ranking, experience, and surface proficiency—Medvedev has consistently performed well on clay despite preferring hard courts, whilst Walton lacks the match record to suggest he could trouble a top-five player in a best-of-five format.

Historical precedent shows that upsets of this magnitude at Roland Garros occur in fewer than one in twenty matches when the ranking gap exceeds 150 positions. Medvedev's record against players outside the top 100 stands at approximately 95% win rate across all surfaces over the past three years. The only material uncertainty centres on Medvedev's form entering the tournament and whether injury or illness affects either player before 24 May 2026.

Traders should monitor the ATP injury reports and Medvedev's performance at the Rome Masters (May 2026) immediately preceding Roland Garros, as his clay-court readiness will be tested there. Any withdrawal by either player before the scheduled match would trigger the 50-50 tie-break resolution. Match scheduling changes or weather delays extending beyond seven days without completion would similarly resolve the market to even odds.

Methodology

This page tracks Roland Garros ATP: Adam Walton vs Daniil Medvedev across four political prediction venues. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book (the deepest political prediction-market book). Kalshi is the CFTC-regulated US alternative, Betfair the established UK sports-exchange with politics markets, Manifold the open play-money variant. Trump Prediction routes every trade through to Polymarket — at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Trump Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Trump Prediction?

Zero. Trump Prediction routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Trump Prediction triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.