Who will sign U.S. x Iran deal?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Negotiations between the United States and Iran over nuclear policy, sanctions relief, and regional security have historically proceeded through intermediaries rather than direct executive agreements signed by sitting presidents. The 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) was signed by then-Secretary of State John Kerry on behalf of the Obama administration, not by President Obama himself, though it carried full executive authority. Trump withdrew from the JCPOA in 2018 and reimposed sanctions. Any new accord would require either a formal treaty ratification process through the Senate or an executive agreement—both paths face substantial political obstacles. The 18% probability reflects scepticism about whether diplomatic conditions could align sufficiently for a binding written agreement within the 18-month window, particularly given the structural complexity of Iran sanctions architecture and domestic political constraints on both sides.

The primary catalyst traders should monitor is any shift in Trump's stated Iran policy following his 2024 election victory and during his administration's first year. Recent statements from Trump's team have emphasised "maximum pressure" rather than negotiation, though his unpredictability on foreign policy leaves room for tactical reversals. Congressional dynamics matter significantly: any agreement would face scrutiny from Republican hardliners sceptical of Iran engagement. The settlement deadline of 31 July 2026 means meaningful negotiations would need to commence within the next 12 months to allow time for drafting, internal approvals, and signature. Watch for any diplomatic channel openings, changes in sanctions policy, or public signals from Trump regarding Iran negotiations as primary indicators of shifting probability.

Methodology

This page tracks Who will sign U.S. x Iran deal? across four political prediction venues. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book (the deepest political prediction-market book). Kalshi is the CFTC-regulated US alternative, Betfair the established UK sports-exchange with politics markets, Manifold the open play-money variant. Trump Prediction routes every trade through to Polymarket — at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Trump Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What does it cost to trade on Trump Prediction?

Zero. Trump Prediction routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

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How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.