Highest temperature in Amsterdam on August 14?

Platform comparison

Market context

The market seeks to establish the highest temperature recorded at Amsterdam Airport Schiphol on 14 August 2026, with settlement determined by Weather Underground's Daily Observations table rather than summary figures. The 0% implied probability suggests traders are not currently backing any specific temperature range, indicating either uncertainty about which bracket will prove correct or insufficient trading activity to establish conviction.

Amsterdam's August climate shows consistent patterns across historical records. Mid-August temperatures at Schiphol typically peak between 20–24°C, with extremes occasionally reaching 26–28°C during heat waves. The Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI) data from preceding decades indicates that temperatures exceeding 30°C on this date remain rare, occurring roughly once per decade during exceptional heat events. The 2003 European heat wave and the 2022 summer heatwave provide reference points for how far above seasonal norms conditions can deviate, though neither specifically targeted mid-August Amsterdam.

Traders monitoring this market should track European weather forecasting models as August 2026 approaches, particularly outputs from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and national meteorological services. High-pressure systems moving northward from the Mediterranean or persistent continental air masses would be the primary catalysts for above-average temperatures. The specific resolution methodology—relying on Schiphol's Daily Observations rather than summary highs—requires familiarity with how Weather Underground records data at this station, as discrepancies between observation tables and headline figures have historically affected weather-related market settlements.

Methodology

Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for Highest temperature in Amsterdam on August 14? plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.

Resolution & payout

Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

How accurate are political prediction markets?

Historically more accurate than polls. Polymarket's Brier score on US 2024 elections was ~0.11 — better than 538 (~0.14) and every mainstream poll. Markets aggregate information with real skin in the game.

What resolution source is used for elections?

Polymarket defines the source per contract — usually Associated Press (AP Race Call), Reuters or the official electoral commission. The source is stated in contract details before the market opens.

Can prediction markets influence election outcomes?

Markets reflect expectations rather than create them. Studies show public-facing markets can anchor expectations, but don't influence the underlying outcome. Political markets are information, not advocacy.

Are political prediction markets legal in my country?

It varies. They sit in legal gray areas in most jurisdictions. Polymarket is geo-blocked from US/UK/EU; some broker frontends have a different geo footprint. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose, and only if you understand the legal status in your jurisdiction.

Are UK election prediction markets available from the UK?

Yes. Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer UKGC-regulated UK election markets (seat counts, party share, constituency results). Polymarket also lists UK election contracts with deeper global liquidity. Betfair winnings are typically tax-free for UK individuals; Polymarket profits are subject to HMRC CGT.