Highest temperature in Amsterdam on July 16?

Platform comparison

Market context

Amsterdam Airport Schiphol is currently recording its peak daily heat for 16 July 2026, with the settlement window closing within hours to confirm the final Celsius figure. The crowd-implied probability of 0% for the YES outcome suggests the market expects the temperature to fall outside the specific range defined by the contract, likely due to prevailing cooler conditions or a mismatch in the trader’s selected bracket.

Historical data for mid-July at Schiphol typically shows highs between 20°C and 25°C, though extreme heatwaves in 2019 and 2022 pushed readings above 35°C. The current 0% probability aligns with recent meteorological trends indicating a lack of sustained high-pressure systems over the Netherlands this week, making an outlier heat event statistically improbable compared to those comparable cases.

Traders should monitor real-time updates from Wunderground for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station, as the resolution source relies exclusively on its recorded maximum for all times on this day. No scheduled political debates or campaign-finance disclosures influence this weather event, but sudden shifts in wind direction from the Atlantic could alter the final reading before the 12:00 UTC settlement deadline.

Sources: 1

Methodology

This page tracks Highest temperature in Amsterdam on July 16? across four political prediction venues. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book (the deepest political prediction-market book). Kalshi is the CFTC-regulated US alternative, Betfair the established UK sports-exchange with politics markets, Manifold the open play-money variant. For users geo-blocked from Polymarket directly, brokers like Trump Prediction provide a 0%-fee route into the same order book.

Resolution & payout

For political markets the resolution source is decisive. Polymarket defines a concrete source per contract (e.g. AP, Reuters, official electoral commission) and uses the UMA Optimistic Oracle as the on-chain dispute mechanism. With a clearly defined outcome the USDC payout lands within minutes of the final confirmation.

FAQ

How accurate are political prediction markets?

Historically more accurate than polls. Polymarket's Brier score on US 2024 elections was ~0.11 — better than 538 (~0.14) and every mainstream poll. Markets aggregate information with real skin in the game.

What resolution source is used for elections?

Polymarket defines the source per contract — usually Associated Press (AP Race Call), Reuters or the official electoral commission. The source is stated in contract details before the market opens.

Can prediction markets influence election outcomes?

Markets reflect expectations rather than create them. Studies show public-facing markets can anchor expectations, but don't influence the underlying outcome. Political markets are information, not advocacy.

Which platform has the deepest political liquidity?

Polymarket — by far. US 2024 presidential volume was ~$3.5B vs Kalshi (~$200M) and Betfair (~$120M). Where Polymarket is geo-blocked, brokers like Trump Prediction route into the same order book at 0% fees.

Are political prediction markets legal in my country?

It varies. They sit in legal gray areas in most jurisdictions. Polymarket is geo-blocked from US/UK/EU; some broker frontends have a different geo footprint. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose, and only if you understand the legal status in your jurisdiction.