Highest temperature in Beijing on August 17?

Platform comparison

Market context

The market seeks to establish the highest temperature recorded at Beijing Capital International Airport on 17 August 2026, measured in degrees Celsius and sourced from Weather Underground's Daily Observations table. The settlement window closes at midday UTC on that date, requiring resolution based on official meteorological data rather than summary forecasts.

Beijing's August climate presents consistent patterns across historical records. Mid-August temperatures at the capital's airport typically range between 25–33°C, with peaks occasionally exceeding 34°C during heat waves. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either awaiting clearer seasonal forecasting data or treating this as a calibration exercise given the two-year forward timeframe. Historical August records show the city experiences variable conditions depending on monsoon activity and high-pressure systems; the specific daily maximum can shift substantially based on cloud cover and wind patterns in the preceding weeks.

Traders monitoring this market should track seasonal weather models released by China's Meteorological Administration and international forecasting services as August 2026 approaches. Near-term catalysts include the release of summer monsoon forecasts (typically issued in May–June) and any declared El Niño or La Niña conditions that influence East Asian weather patterns. The precise resolution hinges on Weather Underground's station data integrity; any discrepancies between summary displays and the Daily Observations table will favour the latter source, a distinction material to settlement accuracy.

Methodology

Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for Highest temperature in Beijing on August 17? plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.

Resolution & payout

Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

How accurate are political prediction markets?

Historically more accurate than polls. Polymarket's Brier score on US 2024 elections was ~0.11 — better than 538 (~0.14) and every mainstream poll. Markets aggregate information with real skin in the game.

What resolution source is used for elections?

Polymarket defines the source per contract — usually Associated Press (AP Race Call), Reuters or the official electoral commission. The source is stated in contract details before the market opens.

Which platform has the deepest political liquidity?

Polymarket — by far. US 2024 presidential volume was ~$3.5B vs Kalshi (~$200M) and Betfair (~$120M). Where Polymarket is geo-blocked, brokers like Trump Prediction route into the same order book at 0% fees.

How fast do political markets react to news?

High-liquidity markets move within seconds to minutes. A Trump tweet on the economy can shift the "Trump 2024" market 2-5 points before mainstream media has written anything.

Are UK election prediction markets available from the UK?

Yes. Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer UKGC-regulated UK election markets (seat counts, party share, constituency results). Polymarket also lists UK election contracts with deeper global liquidity. Betfair winnings are typically tax-free for UK individuals; Polymarket profits are subject to HMRC CGT.