Highest temperature in Beijing on July 11?

Platform comparison

Market context

Beijing is entering its peak summer heatwave, with July consistently delivering the city’s highest temperatures and the Beijing Capital International Airport Station recording daily peaks that frequently breach 38°C. The market’s 0% YES probability for any specific temperature range implies the crowd expects the day’s maximum to fall outside the offered brackets, likely due to uncertainty over whether conditions will reach extreme highs or remain near seasonal averages.

Historical data shows July in Beijing routinely sees highs around 31–32°C (88–96°F), with the all-time record of 41.9°C struck on 24 July 1999 [2]. In 2023, temperatures reached 40°C during the month, while the average high for July 17 is 31.1°C [1][3]. Recent weeks in early July 2026 recorded a peak of 35.4°C (95.8°F) on 3 July, suggesting the atmosphere is primed for another heat spike but not necessarily record-breaking extremes [8].

Traders should monitor the National Meteorological Centre of China’s daily heatwave advisories and any scheduled declarations on extreme weather protocols, which often precede official temperature spikes. Reuters reported China experienced its hottest month in recent history in July 2024, with national averages eclipsing 2017 levels, indicating a trend toward intensified summer heat [10]. The market leans on Wunderground’s real-time station data as the settlement catalyst, with no political or campaign-finance dependencies affecting the outcome.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for Highest temperature in Beijing on July 11? plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.

Resolution & payout

For political markets the resolution source is decisive. Polymarket defines a concrete source per contract (e.g. AP, Reuters, official electoral commission) and uses the UMA Optimistic Oracle as the on-chain dispute mechanism. With a clearly defined outcome the USDC payout lands within minutes of the final confirmation.

FAQ

How accurate are political prediction markets?

Historically more accurate than polls. Polymarket's Brier score on US 2024 elections was ~0.11 — better than 538 (~0.14) and every mainstream poll. Markets aggregate information with real skin in the game.

Can prediction markets influence election outcomes?

Markets reflect expectations rather than create them. Studies show public-facing markets can anchor expectations, but don't influence the underlying outcome. Political markets are information, not advocacy.

Which platform has the deepest political liquidity?

Polymarket — by far. US 2024 presidential volume was ~$3.5B vs Kalshi (~$200M) and Betfair (~$120M). Where Polymarket is geo-blocked, brokers like Trump Prediction route into the same order book at 0% fees.

Are political prediction markets legal in my country?

It varies. They sit in legal gray areas in most jurisdictions. Polymarket is geo-blocked from US/UK/EU; some broker frontends have a different geo footprint. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose, and only if you understand the legal status in your jurisdiction.

Why do Polymarket and Kalshi differ on elections?

Kalshi must follow CFTC compliance — strict definitions, clear resolution sources, US citizens only with KYC. Polymarket operates globally without CFTC oversight — deeper liquidity, but also higher regulatory risk.