Highest temperature in Beijing on July 13?

Platform comparison

Market context

Beijing faces its peak summer heat on 13 July 2026, with the market pricing in a near-zero chance of temperatures exceeding the highest recorded range. Historical data shows July is the city’s hottest month, averaging 31°C (88°F) highs, while extreme spikes have breached 41°C in recent years. The all-time record stands at 41.9°C on 24 July 1999, though a 2010 reading of 42.1°C on 5 July suggests July can occasionally surpass June’s extremes [3][8][9].

The 0% YES probability implies traders expect temperatures to remain within the lowest bracket, likely under 32°C, despite typical July averages. This leans heavily on the absence of confirmed heatwave declarations or emergency cooling advisories from Chinese meteorological authorities as of early July. Traders should monitor daily Wunderground updates for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station and any sudden shifts in regional humidity or wind patterns that could suppress peak temperatures. Recent heatwave coverage in northern China during June 2023, when temperatures hit 41.1°C, underscores the volatility, but no such declaration has been issued for mid-July 2026 [2].

With settlement ending at 12:00 UTC on 13 July, the market hinges on real-time data from Wunderground rather than political or campaign-finance catalysts. Unlike political prediction markets, weather outcomes depend solely on atmospheric conditions, making this a pure climate bet. The lack of movement in poll-like weather forecasts or scheduled climate declarations means the current probability reflects a stable, non-extreme outlook for the day [1][5].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for Highest temperature in Beijing on July 13? plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.

Resolution & payout

Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.

FAQ

What resolution source is used for elections?

Polymarket defines the source per contract — usually Associated Press (AP Race Call), Reuters or the official electoral commission. The source is stated in contract details before the market opens.

Can prediction markets influence election outcomes?

Markets reflect expectations rather than create them. Studies show public-facing markets can anchor expectations, but don't influence the underlying outcome. Political markets are information, not advocacy.

How fast do political markets react to news?

High-liquidity markets move within seconds to minutes. A Trump tweet on the economy can shift the "Trump 2024" market 2-5 points before mainstream media has written anything.

Why do Polymarket and Kalshi differ on elections?

Kalshi must follow CFTC compliance — strict definitions, clear resolution sources, US citizens only with KYC. Polymarket operates globally without CFTC oversight — deeper liquidity, but also higher regulatory risk.

Which political events have the biggest volume?

US Presidential election, party nominations (DNC/RNC), Senate majorities, individual state outcomes (Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin), and major European elections. Peak markets reach $50-500M per event.