Highest temperature in Beijing on June 4?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Beijing's weather in early June typically falls within warm to hot ranges, with historical June temperatures at the capital's airport station frequently reaching 28–32°C on clear days. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either uncertain about the resolution mechanism or expect conditions to fall outside all offered ranges. Historical data from Wunderground shows that Beijing's June highs rarely exceed 35°C, though heat waves can push temperatures into that territory. The city's location on the North China Plain means early June sits between spring variability and the onset of the monsoon season, creating conditions where daily highs cluster predictably around 28–30°C in typical years.

Traders should monitor China Meteorological Administration forecasts released in the days preceding 4 June 2026, as these typically provide the most reliable guidance for Beijing's airport station readings. Wunderground's historical records, which form the settlement source, update daily and reflect actual recorded temperatures rather than forecasts. The current zero probability may reflect insufficient liquidity or trader hesitation about committing capital to a weather outcome months in advance, rather than genuine uncertainty about whether Beijing will experience measurable heat on that date. Recent seasonal patterns suggest June temperatures in Beijing have remained relatively stable year-on-year, with extreme outliers uncommon.

Methodology

This page tracks Highest temperature in Beijing on June 4? across four political prediction venues. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book (the deepest political prediction-market book). Kalshi is the CFTC-regulated US alternative, Betfair the established UK sports-exchange with politics markets, Manifold the open play-money variant. Trump Prediction routes every trade through to Polymarket — at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Trump Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Trump Prediction is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Trump Prediction triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.