Highest temperature in Chengdu on August 1?

Platform comparison

Market context

Chengdu’s airport temperature on 1 August will be set by the day’s maximum reading, and the market is trading against a city that is normally near its seasonal peak at this point in the calendar. August averages in Chengdu are consistently warm to hot, with typical daytime highs around 30–31°C and average highs on 1 August near 29.8°C to 31°C, while weather-history sources also show that the date can regularly reach the low 30s Celsius and, in stronger heat events, the high 30s[1][2][16].

That history makes the current **0% YES** crowd view look extreme unless traders are anchoring on unusually wet, cloudy, or rainy conditions suppressing the airport high. Comparable August records in Chengdu show a wide spread, from routine highs in the high 20s to lows in the mid-20s on cooler, rainy days, but also occasional spikes above 33°C and even into the upper 30s in exceptional years[4][16]. For a market resolving to a highest daily temperature at Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport, the key question is not whether August is warm, but whether the day clears the range threshold implied by the contract.

The main catalyst to watch is the near-term forecast for the airport and any shift in the rain pattern, because Chengdu’s August climate is humid and rainfall is frequent enough to cap daytime heating on some days[2][12][16]. Traders should focus on whether forecast models keep the afternoon cloud cover and showers intact or allow stronger sun and downslope warming; that will matter more than the month-long average. The market is therefore leaning most heavily on short-range weather guidance rather than any political-style event calendar, with the resolution source ultimately being the Wunderground daily history page for Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport[14].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page tracks Highest temperature in Chengdu on August 1? across four political prediction venues. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book (the deepest political prediction-market book). Kalshi is the CFTC-regulated US alternative, Betfair the established UK sports-exchange with politics markets, Manifold the open play-money variant. For users geo-blocked from Polymarket directly, brokers like Trump Prediction provide a 0%-fee route into the same order book.

Resolution & payout

For political markets the resolution source is decisive. Polymarket defines a concrete source per contract (e.g. AP, Reuters, official electoral commission) and uses the UMA Optimistic Oracle as the on-chain dispute mechanism. With a clearly defined outcome the USDC payout lands within minutes of the final confirmation.

FAQ

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Historically more accurate than polls. Polymarket's Brier score on US 2024 elections was ~0.11 — better than 538 (~0.14) and every mainstream poll. Markets aggregate information with real skin in the game.

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Polymarket — by far. US 2024 presidential volume was ~$3.5B vs Kalshi (~$200M) and Betfair (~$120M). Where Polymarket is geo-blocked, brokers like Trump Prediction route into the same order book at 0% fees.

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