Highest temperature in Chengdu on August 17?

Platform comparison

Market context

Chengdu will experience peak summer heat on 17 August 2026, with the market tracking whether the highest temperature recorded at Shuangliu International Airport Station exceeds a specified threshold in degrees Celsius. The resolution hinges on Weather Underground's Daily Observations table rather than summary figures, establishing a precise measurement standard that eliminates ambiguity from rounded or averaged reporting.

Chengdu's August climate presents consistent thermal patterns. Historical data from the China Meteorological Administration shows that mid-August temperatures in the city regularly reach 35–38°C, with extreme readings occasionally surpassing 40°C during particularly intense heat waves. The 2013 heat wave saw Chengdu peak at 43.0°C on 25 August, whilst more typical August days settle between 34–37°C. The current 0% crowd probability suggests traders are pricing in a scenario where the temperature falls below the lowest available range option, an outcome that contradicts decades of meteorological records for this period and location.

Traders should monitor China's summer weather patterns and any anomalous atmospheric conditions reported by the China Meteorological Administration in the weeks preceding mid-August 2026. El Niño or La Niña phases can influence East Asian summer temperatures, though such patterns typically emerge months in advance. Shuangliu Airport's station equipment and reporting consistency remain stable variables, making measurement variance unlikely. The settlement window closes at midday UTC on 17 August, requiring traders to account for time-zone conversion when cross-referencing real-time temperature reports from Chengdu local time.

Methodology

This page tracks Highest temperature in Chengdu on August 17? across four political prediction venues. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book (the deepest political prediction-market book). Kalshi is the CFTC-regulated US alternative, Betfair the established UK sports-exchange with politics markets, Manifold the open play-money variant. For users geo-blocked from Polymarket directly, brokers like Trump Prediction provide a 0%-fee route into the same order book.

Resolution & payout

For political markets the resolution source is decisive. Polymarket defines a concrete source per contract (e.g. AP, Reuters, official electoral commission) and uses the UMA Optimistic Oracle as the on-chain dispute mechanism. With a clearly defined outcome the USDC payout lands within minutes of the final confirmation.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

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Polymarket defines the source per contract — usually Associated Press (AP Race Call), Reuters or the official electoral commission. The source is stated in contract details before the market opens.

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Are UK election prediction markets available from the UK?

Yes. Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer UKGC-regulated UK election markets (seat counts, party share, constituency results). Polymarket also lists UK election contracts with deeper global liquidity. Betfair winnings are typically tax-free for UK individuals; Polymarket profits are subject to HMRC CGT.