Highest temperature in Chengdu on July 12?

Platform comparison

Market context

Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport is expected to record its peak daily heat on 12 July 2026, with the market currently pricing zero probability for temperatures exceeding the highest defined range. This near-certainty of a lower outcome contradicts the city’s typical mid-summer intensity, where July regularly produces the year’s hottest days.

Historical data frames this 0% probability as an outlier against established climate norms. July is consistently Chengdu’s hottest month, with average highs between 28°C and 30°C and frequent spikes reaching 35°C to 38°C [1][2]. Past records show daily maximums rarely falling below 30°C during the middle ten days of July, with extremes hitting 38.6°C in August 2022 and 38°C recorded in recent July periods [1][10]. The current market clustering suggests a significant deviation from these warming trends, where historical averages near 30–31°C usually support higher temperature brackets [8].

Traders should monitor real-time meteorological updates from Wunderground, the designated resolution source, for the specific station reading at ZUUU [8]. While no political debates or campaign disclosures influence weather outcomes, the primary catalyst is the immediate atmospheric forecast for Sichuan Province, which may show unexpected cloud cover or rainfall reducing peak heat [1]. Recent national records indicate China experienced its hottest July on record with temperatures reaching 45°C (113°F) in other regions, suggesting broader warming pressures that typically elevate Chengdu’s baseline [4]. The market leans on the absence of such extreme heatwaves in the immediate local forecast for this specific date.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for Highest temperature in Chengdu on July 12? plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.

Resolution & payout

For political markets the resolution source is decisive. Polymarket defines a concrete source per contract (e.g. AP, Reuters, official electoral commission) and uses the UMA Optimistic Oracle as the on-chain dispute mechanism. With a clearly defined outcome the USDC payout lands within minutes of the final confirmation.

FAQ

How accurate are political prediction markets?

Historically more accurate than polls. Polymarket's Brier score on US 2024 elections was ~0.11 — better than 538 (~0.14) and every mainstream poll. Markets aggregate information with real skin in the game.

What resolution source is used for elections?

Polymarket defines the source per contract — usually Associated Press (AP Race Call), Reuters or the official electoral commission. The source is stated in contract details before the market opens.

Which platform has the deepest political liquidity?

Polymarket — by far. US 2024 presidential volume was ~$3.5B vs Kalshi (~$200M) and Betfair (~$120M). Where Polymarket is geo-blocked, brokers like Trump Prediction route into the same order book at 0% fees.

How fast do political markets react to news?

High-liquidity markets move within seconds to minutes. A Trump tweet on the economy can shift the "Trump 2024" market 2-5 points before mainstream media has written anything.

Why do Polymarket and Kalshi differ on elections?

Kalshi must follow CFTC compliance — strict definitions, clear resolution sources, US citizens only with KYC. Polymarket operates globally without CFTC oversight — deeper liquidity, but also higher regulatory risk.