Highest temperature in Chengdu on July 13?

Platform comparison

Market context

Chengdu is experiencing peak summer heat as July 13, 2026, arrives, with the city’s Sichuan Basin geography trapping humidity and driving temperatures upward. Historical data shows July is one of the hottest months in Chengdu, often reaching 35–38°C, and recent records confirm extreme spikes, including a 39°C reading on July 8, 2026, which surpassed the multi-year extreme of 37.3°C[1][10]. The current 0% YES probability for any temperature range implies the market expects conditions to stay well below typical July highs, a stance that contradicts both seasonal norms and this year’s record-breaking trend.

Comparable cases frame this probability as highly anomalous. In 2022, Chengdu hit 38.6°C on August 23, and the 2024 July was China’s hottest month on record since 1961, with average temperatures climbing significantly[4][9]. The 24-hour daily mean in July usually sits around 25°C, but afternoon highs frequently reach 33°C, with extremes up to 39.4°C recorded historically[6]. A zero-probability outcome ignores these precedents and the basin’s known heat retention, suggesting the market may be underweighting meteorological reality.

Traders should monitor Wunderground’s hourly updates for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station, the official resolution source, as real-time data will override historical averages[8]. Key catalysts include any sudden shifts in monsoon patterns or cloud cover, which could suppress temperatures, though recent trends point toward sustained heat[1]. With no scheduled political debates or campaign disclosures affecting weather, the market leans entirely on atmospheric conditions, making the 39°C benchmark from July 8 a critical reference point for reassessing the 0% probability[10].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for Highest temperature in Chengdu on July 13? plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.

Resolution & payout

Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.

FAQ

What resolution source is used for elections?

Polymarket defines the source per contract — usually Associated Press (AP Race Call), Reuters or the official electoral commission. The source is stated in contract details before the market opens.

Which platform has the deepest political liquidity?

Polymarket — by far. US 2024 presidential volume was ~$3.5B vs Kalshi (~$200M) and Betfair (~$120M). Where Polymarket is geo-blocked, brokers like Trump Prediction route into the same order book at 0% fees.

How fast do political markets react to news?

High-liquidity markets move within seconds to minutes. A Trump tweet on the economy can shift the "Trump 2024" market 2-5 points before mainstream media has written anything.

Are political prediction markets legal in my country?

It varies. They sit in legal gray areas in most jurisdictions. Polymarket is geo-blocked from US/UK/EU; some broker frontends have a different geo footprint. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose, and only if you understand the legal status in your jurisdiction.

Which political events have the biggest volume?

US Presidential election, party nominations (DNC/RNC), Senate majorities, individual state outcomes (Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin), and major European elections. Peak markets reach $50-500M per event.