Highest temperature in Chengdu on July 16?

Platform comparison

Market context

Chengdu faces its peak summer heatwave as meteorologists monitor the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station for the day’s highest temperature record on 16 July 2026. The market currently assigns zero probability to any outcome, reflecting a crowd consensus that the event has either already passed settlement or that the specific temperature range queried is deemed impossible under current atmospheric conditions.

Historical data from Wunderground shows Chengdu routinely exceeds 35°C in mid-July, with the Shuangliu station recording peaks near 38°C during the 2022 and 2023 heatwaves. The 0% YES probability suggests the market may be misaligned with seasonal norms unless the settlement window has already closed or the temperature range in question falls far outside plausible extremes for this region.

Traders should watch real-time updates from Wunderground’s daily history page for the Shuangliu station, as this is the official resolution source. No scheduled political debates, campaign disclosures, or conventions influence this weather market, but sudden shifts in cloud cover or monsoon activity could alter the final reading. Given today’s date is 16 July 2026, the settlement window ending at 12:00 UTC means the market will resolve within two hours, making live temperature tracking the only relevant catalyst.

Methodology

Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for Highest temperature in Chengdu on July 16? plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.

Resolution & payout

For political markets the resolution source is decisive. Polymarket defines a concrete source per contract (e.g. AP, Reuters, official electoral commission) and uses the UMA Optimistic Oracle as the on-chain dispute mechanism. With a clearly defined outcome the USDC payout lands within minutes of the final confirmation.

FAQ

How accurate are political prediction markets?

Historically more accurate than polls. Polymarket's Brier score on US 2024 elections was ~0.11 — better than 538 (~0.14) and every mainstream poll. Markets aggregate information with real skin in the game.

What resolution source is used for elections?

Polymarket defines the source per contract — usually Associated Press (AP Race Call), Reuters or the official electoral commission. The source is stated in contract details before the market opens.

Can prediction markets influence election outcomes?

Markets reflect expectations rather than create them. Studies show public-facing markets can anchor expectations, but don't influence the underlying outcome. Political markets are information, not advocacy.

How fast do political markets react to news?

High-liquidity markets move within seconds to minutes. A Trump tweet on the economy can shift the "Trump 2024" market 2-5 points before mainstream media has written anything.

Why do Polymarket and Kalshi differ on elections?

Kalshi must follow CFTC compliance — strict definitions, clear resolution sources, US citizens only with KYC. Polymarket operates globally without CFTC oversight — deeper liquidity, but also higher regulatory risk.