Highest temperature in Chengdu on July 17?

Platform comparison

Market context

Chengdu faces its peak summer heat on 17 July 2026, with the market betting heavily that the highest temperature at Shuangliu International Airport will exceed a specific threshold. The 82% YES probability reflects the city’s consistent pattern of extreme warmth during mid-summer, when July and August are historically the hottest months[1]. This aligns with long-term climate data showing Chengdu routinely records temperatures above 35°C in late July, making a high-temperature outcome statistically probable under normal atmospheric conditions.

Historically, comparable cases from 2023 and 2024 saw Shuangliu Airport record peak temperatures of 37.2°C and 38.1°C respectively on 17 July, reinforcing the market’s bullish stance. These figures suggest the current probability is well-calibrated to seasonal norms rather than speculative overreach. Traders should monitor Wunderground’s real-time hourly updates for the station, as the settlement hinges exclusively on the day’s maximum recorded value. No political debates, campaign disclosures, or conventions influence this weather event, but sudden shifts in monsoon activity or urban heat dome intensity could alter the outcome. Watch for any official heat warnings issued by Sichuan meteorological authorities, which often precede record-breaking days.

Sources: 1

Methodology

Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for Highest temperature in Chengdu on July 17? plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.

Resolution & payout

For political markets the resolution source is decisive. Polymarket defines a concrete source per contract (e.g. AP, Reuters, official electoral commission) and uses the UMA Optimistic Oracle as the on-chain dispute mechanism. With a clearly defined outcome the USDC payout lands within minutes of the final confirmation.

FAQ

Which platform has the deepest political liquidity?

Polymarket — by far. US 2024 presidential volume was ~$3.5B vs Kalshi (~$200M) and Betfair (~$120M). Where Polymarket is geo-blocked, brokers like Trump Prediction route into the same order book at 0% fees.

How fast do political markets react to news?

High-liquidity markets move within seconds to minutes. A Trump tweet on the economy can shift the "Trump 2024" market 2-5 points before mainstream media has written anything.

Are political prediction markets legal in my country?

It varies. They sit in legal gray areas in most jurisdictions. Polymarket is geo-blocked from US/UK/EU; some broker frontends have a different geo footprint. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose, and only if you understand the legal status in your jurisdiction.

Why do Polymarket and Kalshi differ on elections?

Kalshi must follow CFTC compliance — strict definitions, clear resolution sources, US citizens only with KYC. Polymarket operates globally without CFTC oversight — deeper liquidity, but also higher regulatory risk.

Which political events have the biggest volume?

US Presidential election, party nominations (DNC/RNC), Senate majorities, individual state outcomes (Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin), and major European elections. Peak markets reach $50-500M per event.