Highest temperature in Chengdu on July 24?

Platform comparison

Market context

Chengdu’s airport temperature for 24 July is the settlement point, and the market’s **0% YES** implies traders are not pricing in the temperature landing in the designated range. Current live weather checks show Chengdu in the mid-20s to mid-30s Celsius, with forecasts ranging from about **24°C** to **35°C** and rain or high humidity still present, which matters because the outcome depends on the **highest** reading at Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport, not the citywide average[1][2][5].

The historical frame is straightforward: Chengdu July weather is normally hot, humid and rain-prone, with typical July highs around **30°C** and some guides putting daytime highs in a broader **29°C to 37°C** band[3]. That means a low probability reading is only consistent if the target range is relatively high or if traders expect cloud cover and rainfall to cap the airport maximum below the relevant threshold. The key comparable case is whether the day behaves like a standard Chengdu monsoon-summer afternoon, when temperatures often peak in the low 30s, or whether rain suppresses the top end of the range[2][3].

The main catalyst to watch is the **daytime forecast evolution** at or near Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport, especially any shift in rain timing, cloud cover and humid heat through the afternoon, because the official source is the airport station’s daily high rather than a city forecast[3]. Short-term weather guidance from the BBC and Met Office already points to warm conditions with shower risk and maximums around **24°C to 35°C**, so traders will be leaning on whether the final airport observation comes in below or above the market’s chosen bucket[1][5].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page tracks Highest temperature in Chengdu on July 24? across four political prediction venues. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book (the deepest political prediction-market book). Kalshi is the CFTC-regulated US alternative, Betfair the established UK sports-exchange with politics markets, Manifold the open play-money variant. For users geo-blocked from Polymarket directly, brokers like Trump Prediction provide a 0%-fee route into the same order book.

Resolution & payout

For political markets the resolution source is decisive. Polymarket defines a concrete source per contract (e.g. AP, Reuters, official electoral commission) and uses the UMA Optimistic Oracle as the on-chain dispute mechanism. With a clearly defined outcome the USDC payout lands within minutes of the final confirmation.

FAQ

How accurate are political prediction markets?

Historically more accurate than polls. Polymarket's Brier score on US 2024 elections was ~0.11 — better than 538 (~0.14) and every mainstream poll. Markets aggregate information with real skin in the game.

What resolution source is used for elections?

Polymarket defines the source per contract — usually Associated Press (AP Race Call), Reuters or the official electoral commission. The source is stated in contract details before the market opens.

Can prediction markets influence election outcomes?

Markets reflect expectations rather than create them. Studies show public-facing markets can anchor expectations, but don't influence the underlying outcome. Political markets are information, not advocacy.

Which platform has the deepest political liquidity?

Polymarket — by far. US 2024 presidential volume was ~$3.5B vs Kalshi (~$200M) and Betfair (~$120M). Where Polymarket is geo-blocked, brokers like Trump Prediction route into the same order book at 0% fees.

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It varies. They sit in legal gray areas in most jurisdictions. Polymarket is geo-blocked from US/UK/EU; some broker frontends have a different geo footprint. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose, and only if you understand the legal status in your jurisdiction.