Highest temperature in Chengdu on June 20?

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Market context

Chengdu’s airport reading on 20 June will be judged by the day’s **highest recorded temperature** at Shuangliu, so the relevant question is whether the city can squeeze into a hot-summer range or get held down by rain and cloud. June is usually already warm in Chengdu, with typical daytime highs around **28–30°C** and frequent rain or humidity, which is why market pricing near the extreme low end looks hard to justify on climatology alone.[1][3][5]

The historical frame is straightforward: Chengdu in June is normally warm enough that outcomes in the upper 20s or low 30s are common, but the city’s rainfall pattern can cap maxima if showers arrive early or persist through the afternoon.[1][3][10] AccuWeather’s June outlook for Chengdu shows daily highs broadly in the **high 70s to low 90s °F** range, reinforcing that a mid-20s Celsius print would be atypically cool for the date.[5]

For traders, the key catalyst is the near-term weather sequence rather than any political-style event calendar: updated airport forecasts, timing of thunderstorms, and whether the heat peaks before the daily rain cycle kicks in. The market is leaning most directly on the **weather setup into 20 June**, not on a single scheduled announcement, so watch the hourly forecast trend and any revisions to the expected high from major weather services such as AccuWeather and the airport history page used for settlement.[5][1]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for Highest temperature in Chengdu on June 20? plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.

Resolution & payout

Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.

FAQ

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How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.