Highest temperature in Dallas on August 21?

Platform comparison

Market context

Dallas Love Field was running extremely hot on 21 August, with Weather Underground showing a pre-existing day high of 93°F in the early hours and the National Weather Service later reporting a maximum of 105.1°F over the prior 24 hours, while its daytime forecast pointed to highs around 106–107°F.[4][3][10] That makes a 100% yes price look like a reflection of an almost locked-in outcome rather than a live contest, especially if traders are anchoring to the station’s Daily Observations rather than the summary high/low line.[4]

For comparable heat-day markets, the useful guide is usually the station trend rather than any one snapshot: once the previous day has already posted triple-digit readings and the current forecast holds in the mid-100s, the range outcome typically settles into the highest bracket unless cloud cover, thunderstorms, or an earlier-than-expected cooling trend intervenes.[2][7][12] Here, the prevailing catalyst is the continuation of the Dallas heat wave, with model and hourly forecast pages still calling for very hot conditions and only a stray shower or thunderstorm risk.[2][12] The main dependency is the final Daily Observations entry before the settlement cut-off, because that is the source the market specifies for resolution.[4]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page tracks Highest temperature in Dallas on August 21? across four political prediction venues. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book (the deepest political prediction-market book). Kalshi is the CFTC-regulated US alternative, Betfair the established UK sports-exchange with politics markets, Manifold the open play-money variant. For users geo-blocked from Polymarket directly, brokers like Trump Prediction provide a 0%-fee route into the same order book.

Resolution & payout

For political markets the resolution source is decisive. Polymarket defines a concrete source per contract (e.g. AP, Reuters, official electoral commission) and uses the UMA Optimistic Oracle as the on-chain dispute mechanism. With a clearly defined outcome the USDC payout lands within minutes of the final confirmation.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

What resolution source is used for elections?

Polymarket defines the source per contract — usually Associated Press (AP Race Call), Reuters or the official electoral commission. The source is stated in contract details before the market opens.

Can prediction markets influence election outcomes?

Markets reflect expectations rather than create them. Studies show public-facing markets can anchor expectations, but don't influence the underlying outcome. Political markets are information, not advocacy.

How fast do political markets react to news?

High-liquidity markets move within seconds to minutes. A Trump tweet on the economy can shift the "Trump 2024" market 2-5 points before mainstream media has written anything.

Why do Polymarket and Kalshi differ on elections?

Kalshi must follow CFTC compliance — strict definitions, clear resolution sources, US citizens only with KYC. Polymarket operates globally without CFTC oversight — deeper liquidity, but also higher regulatory risk.

Are UK election prediction markets available from the UK?

Yes. Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer UKGC-regulated UK election markets (seat counts, party share, constituency results). Polymarket also lists UK election contracts with deeper global liquidity. Betfair winnings are typically tax-free for UK individuals; Polymarket profits are subject to HMRC CGT.