Highest temperature in Dallas on July 15?

Platform comparison

Market context

Dallas faces a mid-July heatwave on 15 July 2026, with the prediction market currently pricing any temperature above 91°F at zero probability. This 0% YES stance reflects a consensus that extreme highs exceeding typical summer peaks are unlikely, even as the settlement window closes just hours from now.

Historical data from Dallas Love Field shows July 15 temperatures rarely breach 95°F, with the last decade averaging 90–92°F on this date. The market’s frontrunner, 90–91°F at 41%, aligns closely with these norms, while the 88–89°F outcome at 34% suggests a slight cooling trend compared to the 2024 peak of 96°F recorded on the same day [1].

Traders should monitor Wunderground’s real-time hourly updates for the Love Field Station, as the resolution hinges entirely on its highest recorded temperature for the day. No political debates, campaign disclosures, or conventions influence this weather-specific outcome; the sole catalyst is the atmospheric data stream from the official source, which will be finalised by 12:00 UTC tomorrow [1].

Sources: 1

Methodology

Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for Highest temperature in Dallas on July 15? plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.

Resolution & payout

For political markets the resolution source is decisive. Polymarket defines a concrete source per contract (e.g. AP, Reuters, official electoral commission) and uses the UMA Optimistic Oracle as the on-chain dispute mechanism. With a clearly defined outcome the USDC payout lands within minutes of the final confirmation.

FAQ

What resolution source is used for elections?

Polymarket defines the source per contract — usually Associated Press (AP Race Call), Reuters or the official electoral commission. The source is stated in contract details before the market opens.

Which platform has the deepest political liquidity?

Polymarket — by far. US 2024 presidential volume was ~$3.5B vs Kalshi (~$200M) and Betfair (~$120M). Where Polymarket is geo-blocked, brokers like Trump Prediction route into the same order book at 0% fees.

How fast do political markets react to news?

High-liquidity markets move within seconds to minutes. A Trump tweet on the economy can shift the "Trump 2024" market 2-5 points before mainstream media has written anything.

Are political prediction markets legal in my country?

It varies. They sit in legal gray areas in most jurisdictions. Polymarket is geo-blocked from US/UK/EU; some broker frontends have a different geo footprint. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose, and only if you understand the legal status in your jurisdiction.

Which political events have the biggest volume?

US Presidential election, party nominations (DNC/RNC), Senate majorities, individual state outcomes (Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin), and major European elections. Peak markets reach $50-500M per event.