Highest temperature in Dallas on July 22?

Platform comparison

Market context

Dallas is heading into a mid-July heat outcome that traders are currently pricing as most likely to land in the **104-105°F** bracket, with **106-107°F** the next most-backed range and the market showing **0%** for a Yes outcome at present. Polymarket’s live pricing therefore points to a relatively tight cluster around the mid-100s, rather than an expectation of either an unusually restrained day or a blow-off peak well above 107°F.[1]

That distribution is best read as a heat-risk market rather than a binary call on whether Dallas gets hot, because the settlement depends on the *single highest reading* at Dallas Love Field on 22 July. In practical terms, the key comparison is not just whether temperatures clear 100°F, but whether the afternoon peak reaches the next one- or two-degree band that would shift the winning bucket. Traders should therefore focus on the day-of temperature profile, especially the timing and duration of peak heating, because the final reading can hinge on a brief late-afternoon maximum rather than the broader daily average.[1]

For near-term catalysts, the most relevant inputs are forecast updates from local meteorological coverage and any revised short-range guidance that changes expectations for the afternoon high. The market is leaning primarily on the weather setup itself, not on campaign-style event risk, so the main watchpoints are heat advisories, cloud cover, boundary movement, and whether Dallas Love Field is likely to outperform or undershoot surrounding metro readings on the day.[1]

Sources: 1

Methodology

This page tracks Highest temperature in Dallas on July 22? across four political prediction venues. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book (the deepest political prediction-market book). Kalshi is the CFTC-regulated US alternative, Betfair the established UK sports-exchange with politics markets, Manifold the open play-money variant. For users geo-blocked from Polymarket directly, brokers like Trump Prediction provide a 0%-fee route into the same order book.

Resolution & payout

For political markets the resolution source is decisive. Polymarket defines a concrete source per contract (e.g. AP, Reuters, official electoral commission) and uses the UMA Optimistic Oracle as the on-chain dispute mechanism. With a clearly defined outcome the USDC payout lands within minutes of the final confirmation.

FAQ

What resolution source is used for elections?

Polymarket defines the source per contract — usually Associated Press (AP Race Call), Reuters or the official electoral commission. The source is stated in contract details before the market opens.

Which platform has the deepest political liquidity?

Polymarket — by far. US 2024 presidential volume was ~$3.5B vs Kalshi (~$200M) and Betfair (~$120M). Where Polymarket is geo-blocked, brokers like Trump Prediction route into the same order book at 0% fees.

How fast do political markets react to news?

High-liquidity markets move within seconds to minutes. A Trump tweet on the economy can shift the "Trump 2024" market 2-5 points before mainstream media has written anything.

Are political prediction markets legal in my country?

It varies. They sit in legal gray areas in most jurisdictions. Polymarket is geo-blocked from US/UK/EU; some broker frontends have a different geo footprint. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose, and only if you understand the legal status in your jurisdiction.

Which political events have the biggest volume?

US Presidential election, party nominations (DNC/RNC), Senate majorities, individual state outcomes (Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin), and major European elections. Peak markets reach $50-500M per event.