Highest temperature in Dallas on July 27?

Platform comparison

Market context

The Dallas Love Field Station will record its highest temperature on 27 July 2026, with the market requiring settlement against historical weather data from Wunderground. Dallas summer temperatures typically peak in the 95–98°F range during late July, though heat waves can push readings above 100°F. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either uncertain about the resolution mechanism or treating this as a calibration exercise rather than a genuine weather forecast.

Historical July records for Dallas show considerable year-to-year variation. The city has experienced multiple days exceeding 100°F in July across recent decades, with 2011 and 2023 among the hottest summers on record. Comparable late-July days typically fall between 92–99°F under normal atmospheric conditions. The settlement window closes at midday on 27 July 2026, meaning only temperatures recorded up to that point will count toward resolution, excluding any afternoon or evening peaks that might occur after the cutoff.

Traders should monitor long-range weather forecasts as July 2026 approaches, particularly indices tracking upper-level ridge positioning and soil moisture anomalies across Texas. The National Weather Service and Climate Prediction Center issue monthly outlooks that can signal whether conditions favour above or below-normal temperatures. Any significant atmospheric pattern shifts—such as a strengthening heat dome or tropical moisture intrusion—would alter the probability distribution across temperature bands. Current market pricing at 0% across all ranges indicates either technical issues with the market interface or genuine disagreement about which specific temperature bracket will resolve.

Methodology

Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for Highest temperature in Dallas on July 27? plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.

Resolution & payout

Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.

FAQ

What resolution source is used for elections?

Polymarket defines the source per contract — usually Associated Press (AP Race Call), Reuters or the official electoral commission. The source is stated in contract details before the market opens.

Can prediction markets influence election outcomes?

Markets reflect expectations rather than create them. Studies show public-facing markets can anchor expectations, but don't influence the underlying outcome. Political markets are information, not advocacy.

Which platform has the deepest political liquidity?

Polymarket — by far. US 2024 presidential volume was ~$3.5B vs Kalshi (~$200M) and Betfair (~$120M). Where Polymarket is geo-blocked, brokers like Trump Prediction route into the same order book at 0% fees.

Are political prediction markets legal in my country?

It varies. They sit in legal gray areas in most jurisdictions. Polymarket is geo-blocked from US/UK/EU; some broker frontends have a different geo footprint. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose, and only if you understand the legal status in your jurisdiction.

Why do Polymarket and Kalshi differ on elections?

Kalshi must follow CFTC compliance — strict definitions, clear resolution sources, US citizens only with KYC. Polymarket operates globally without CFTC oversight — deeper liquidity, but also higher regulatory risk.