Highest temperature in Guangzhou on July 1?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 1 July 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport will determine the outcome of a market currently priced at 0% for the “YES” range, implying the crowd believes the temperature will fall outside the specified bracket. This event hinges on whether extreme heat aligns with historical peaks or typical seasonal averages for early July in Guangzhou.

Historically, July is one of Guangzhou’s hottest months, with daily highs averaging around 33°C (91°F), rarely dipping below 30°C (85°F) or exceeding 36°C (96.8°F)[1][6]. Notably, the city’s all-time record high of 39.1°C occurred precisely on 1 July 2004, suggesting that this date has previously produced extreme heat[3]. Recent data confirms China experienced its hottest July on record in 2024, with average temperatures surpassing those of 2017[2][5]. These comparable cases indicate that a 0% probability may be overly conservative if the market is not leaning on the 2004 record as a catalyst.

Traders should monitor official weather bulletins from China’s National Meteorological Centre and real-time updates from Wunderground, the designated resolution source[4]. Any sudden heatwave declarations or climate advisances issued ahead of 1 July could shift implied probabilities. While no scheduled political debates or campaign-finance disclosures directly influence weather, broader climate policy announcements from Beijing may indirectly signal long-term warming trends. The market appears to be leaning on the absence of extreme heat forecasts for early July 2026, but this may overlook the historical precedent of record-breaking temperatures on this exact date[3].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page tracks Highest temperature in Guangzhou on July 1? across four political prediction venues. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book (the deepest political prediction-market book). Kalshi is the CFTC-regulated US alternative, Betfair the established UK sports-exchange with politics markets, Manifold the open play-money variant. For users geo-blocked from Polymarket directly, brokers like Trump Prediction provide a 0%-fee route into the same order book.

Resolution & payout

Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.

FAQ

How accurate are political prediction markets?

Historically more accurate than polls. Polymarket's Brier score on US 2024 elections was ~0.11 — better than 538 (~0.14) and every mainstream poll. Markets aggregate information with real skin in the game.

What resolution source is used for elections?

Polymarket defines the source per contract — usually Associated Press (AP Race Call), Reuters or the official electoral commission. The source is stated in contract details before the market opens.

Which platform has the deepest political liquidity?

Polymarket — by far. US 2024 presidential volume was ~$3.5B vs Kalshi (~$200M) and Betfair (~$120M). Where Polymarket is geo-blocked, brokers like Trump Prediction route into the same order book at 0% fees.

Why do Polymarket and Kalshi differ on elections?

Kalshi must follow CFTC compliance — strict definitions, clear resolution sources, US citizens only with KYC. Polymarket operates globally without CFTC oversight — deeper liquidity, but also higher regulatory risk.

Which political events have the biggest volume?

US Presidential election, party nominations (DNC/RNC), Senate majorities, individual state outcomes (Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin), and major European elections. Peak markets reach $50-500M per event.